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Joseph Hutchins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 10 Newcomers - Wide Receivers
Which WRs will rise into the fantasy top ten in 2016?
8/15/16
QBs | RBs | WRs

A couple weeks back, we chatted about some quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers that could topple from the ranks of the fantasy Top 10 this coming season. We’ll shift our focus this week to the players who look like good bets to replace them.

Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard scoring.

A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy WRs from last season…

  Top 10 Wide Receivers - 2015
Rank Player
1 Antonio Brown
2 Julio Jones
3 Brandon Marshall
4 Allen Robinson
5 Odell Beckham Jr.
6 DeAndre Hopkins
7 Doug Baldwin
8 A.J. Green
9 Larry Fitzgerald
10 Calvin Johnson

Demaryius Thomas

An unfocused Thomas with bad QB play finished as the WR13 last season. He's undervalued in 2016.



Wide Receivers Most Likely to Rise in 2016:

Demaryius Thomas, DEN: It’s hard to believe Thomas was outside the top 10 looking in after consecutive seasons of top 5-caliber digits (2013 and 2014), especially when you consider his squad actually broke through and won Super Bowl gold. Did he sacrifice individual success for the good of his team? Well, that would make for a great narrative but it’s not even remotely true. Thomas took an individual step back last season not because his team needed him to, but because his battery mate, Peyton Manning, was a shadow of his former self and couldn’t consistently throw the ball where his rangy wide receiver likes it, way down the field.

The venerable Manning has now ridden off into the sunset, of course, and the Broncos will turn the offense over to either Mark Sanchez (most likely), Trevor Siemian (less likely), or rookie Paxton Lynch (not likely). Astonishingly, that will be an upgrade over the future Hall of Famer (by a lot). In eight games with Manning at the controls, Thomas averaged a respectable but disappointing 10.1 FPts/G. With Brock Osweiler running the show, he jumped up to 10.7 points per game. That’s not a huge bump, granted, but look what happened when Manning returned for the playoffs: Thomas scored 6.0 points the rest of the way. That’s two playoff games and Super Bowl 50, folks.

The Sanchise doesn’t exactly instill confidence in Denver, I’m guessing, after years of mostly unfulfilled physical promise in New York and then Philly. That physical promise, however, is very real. He possesses great arm strength and some mobility the elder Manning never had and could thrive working with a legit wide receiver stud. My guess is he won’t lead Denver back to glory, but should lead facilitate Thomas’ return to the Top 10.

Golden Tate, DET: It’s been awhile since Tate raised the Shot Caller’s ire by “hauling in” a game-winning Hail Mary against the Pack on MNF and then lying about it in post-game interviews. I swore at the time I’d never speak his name in print again, but…well, you know. Time heals most wounds and I don’t hold grudges forever. Besides, Tate got what was coming to him in the end, shoving off for Detroit after earning a Super Bowl ring, basically ensuring he’ll never own another. Oh, and guess who got to stand helplessly by and watch as Aaron Rodgers finally returned that karmic “Fail Mary” favor last season in Week 13?

Anyway, I said I wouldn’t hold a grudge and here’s proof: I think Tate has a chance, now that Megatron has suddenly upped and retired, to propel himself into Top 10 wide receiver contention. Consider: When Johnson missed several games in his penultimate season, 2013, all Tate did was step into the breach and throw up two 21-plus-point fantasy efforts, his best performances in a Lions uniform…and two of his best three performances in ANY uniform. That’s a very small sample size, I’m aware, but it shows he’s comfortable in the WR1 role. Defenses knew he was the guy to shut down in those contests and they weren’t able to do it. It’s not like he shone only when Johnson was hobbled, by the way. His totals for the entire 2013 season? 99 receptions, 1,331 yards, and four scores. That was good for 13th overall at the position that year.

Golden Tate won’t make people forget about Calvin Johnson. He does have a chance, however, to carve his own legacy as new No.1 option for the Detroit Lions and surprise Top 10 member.

Michael Floyd, ARI: There will be massive turnover and a potential Super Bowl hangover in Denver. There will be stars temporarily or permanently M.I.A. in Charlotte, Foxboro, and Pittsburgh. There will be more questions than answers in Minneapolis and Green Bay, it seems. That leaves, by my estimation, just two teams standing tall as odds-on favorites to reach Super Bowl LI in Houston come next February: Seattle and Arizona. Of the two, I think the Cardinals most resemble the team to beat.

It sure wouldn’t hurt their cause if Floyd actually lived up to his (seemingly annual) billing as “next big thing” at the wide receiver position. 2015 could have been the year, but the former Golden Domer suffered some dislocated fingers during training camp and took a painfully long time to get going. In his five least productive outings, Floyd averaged a horrific 1.5 FPts/G. In his five most productive, he dominated to the tune of 16.5 FPts/G. For context, Bruce Ellington averaged 1.5 points per last season and Antonio Brown 15.4. When the goalposts are Bruce Ellington and Antonio Brown, you know your production could stand to be a tad more consistent.

So why is 2016 the year he finally breaks through and accepts the baton from Larry Fitzgerald in the desert? I’m not sure it is, but he’s big, athletic, tough, and fast enough. If he can stay healthy, he’s more than gifted enough to (finally) justify those breakout predictions. Yes, there are lots of mouths for Carson Palmer to feed (the aforementioned Fitz, John Brown, and even David Johnson), but that cuts both ways. Floyd will rarely face double-coverage and is already a load one-on-one. If the Cards indeed hoist the hardware, he could be a major reason why and he’s still a relative bargain (ADP WR25).

Next: Quarterbacks