Ready or not, let’s take a look at last year’s leaders,
along with those 2014 stars who fell by the wayside, and see if
we can pinpoint potential underachievers for this upcoming season.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
There were almost as many reasons for dropping out of the Top 10
running back ranks as there were actual dropouts in 2015. Injuries,
drugs, relocation, fumbles, fierce competition, hamburgers (presumably),
and straight-up poor performance were all to blame for the collective
freefall these eight former studs experienced.
Grizzled vets Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, and Jamaal Charles barely
cobbled together a 16-game slate between them, undone by a sports
hernia, a torn Achilles, and a torn ACL, respectively. Of the three,
only Foster has a clear path to return in 2016 (albeit, in Miami)
as Lynch abruptly retired and Charles has yet to practice with the
Chiefs this summer although most expect him to be activated at some
point in the next couple weeks.
Le’Veon
Bell and Justin
Forsett were also banged up in last season, but that isn’t why
they tumbled out of the Top 10 IMHO. Bell placed himself squarely
behind the eight ball by getting suspended for two games and then,
unsurprisingly, got himself hurt halfway through the season. Forsett,
meanwhile, averaged a meager 9.1 FPts/game before succumbing to
a brutal fractured arm in Week 10. That per-game clip never would
have landed him in the Top 10, anyway, because…
…it was actually lower than DeMarco Murray’s disappointing
average (9.6). Murray, 2015’s most celebrated flop, never
looked comfortable in Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia offense, tallying
a mere 699 rushing yards and dropping from No.1 overall to No.18.
That’s over 1,000 fewer yards than he accumulated the year
prior in Big-D. Eddie Lacy and Jeremy Hill probably appreciated
him hogging the entire negative pub since they weren’t much
better. The former put the “meal” back in meal ticket,
looking more like a lineman who wandered into the backfield than
a Top 10 stud (758 yards). The latter couldn’t solve an acute
case of butterfingers and eventually split duties with Giovani Bernard
(794 yards).
Most Likely Candidates to Fall from
the Top 10 This Year:
Few are predicting a repeat performance
for Freeman.
Devonta
Freeman, ATL: What, you don’t think the No.1 back can
fall completely out of the Top 10? Didn’t we just get done talking
about a guy who did PRECISELY that this past season? Murray is actually
far from a historical oddity. Four others have suffered a similar
fate since the year 2000 and we’ll talk about one of them next.
First, allow me to state my case for Freeman as the next potential
victim.
There’s no denying the former Seminole’s 2015 was otherworldly
and I won’t be nearly so daft as to suggest otherwise. It
was, however, extremely lopsided, for lack of a better term. In
his first six contests, Freeman racked up nearly 24 FPts per game,
a mark that would have been one of the best in the “post-modern”
era of NFL football (read: pass-oriented) had he sustained it. However,
from Week 7 on, he averaged about 12 FPts per tilt, still great
numbers but more Top 15-caliber than LT-esque. In fact, his 16.5
FPts/G mark ended up being the worst by a No.1 back in the 21st
century. Did Freeman wear down as the season dragged on or did defenses
force Atlanta to do different things?
Whatever the case may be, the Falcons’ brain trust seems to
have settled upon a more diversified RB portfolio in 2016. Coach
Dan Quinn is making no secret about his intention to create a more
communal approach at the position, up to and including reduced touches
for Freeman and increased play for Tevin Coleman, one of the early
stars of training camp. Yes, it’s the silly season and lots
could change between now and September. Are you willing to bet your
fantasy life that the formerly unsung Falcon is more than a one-hit
wonder, though? Be very careful.
DeAngelo
Williams, PIT: Le’Veon Bell apparently didn’t think the
NFL was serious about this whole “drug policy” thing, despite the
two-game suspension he got handed before last season. He now faces
a second, more punitive, four-game suspension for missing several
drug tests in the offseason. This just in: A missed drug test is
the same thing as a failed drug test. Pretty sure that’s industry
standard…in every industry.
The cagey vet, Williams, stands to once again benefit from Bell’s
absence, but there are reasons to believe he might not be as successful
this time around. For starters, Bell has vowed to fight the suspension
and, if recent history is any guide (his first suspension was reduced
from three games), might have a legitimate chance of winning. If
that happens, Williams would soon be relegated to the fantasy scrap
heap. From Weeks 3 through 8 in 2015, when Bell was in the lineup,
Williams managed a mere 153 total yards and didn’t score.
That’s not very good. Making matters worse, 110 of those yards
were tallied in Week 8 AFTER Bell was lost to injury. To recap,
Williams managed exactly 43 yards in the five and a half games Bell
appeared in. That’s much worse than “not very good.”
Even if Bell is unable to get his suspension reduced and, upon his
return, gets immediately injured, is Williams really a shoo-in to
fill the breach as capably as he did in 2015? Don’t forget
he actually missed the Steelers’ two most important contests
(the playoff win against Cincy and then the loss to Denver) because
of a balky ankle. The upside is certainly there if things go sideways
for Bell and that makes Williams an intriguing mid to late-round
selection. Treating him as a likely Top 10 returnee, though? That’s
foolish.
Chris
Ivory, JAX: Ivory wasn’t the surprise Top 10 entrant
Williams was in 2015, but that’s not to say anyone was seriously
predicting his ascension to the ranks of the elite. Far from it,
actually. Despite a very solid 2014 campaign (19th overall RB),
his ADP heading into 2015 was only 4.09, just 23rd overall at the
position. Imagine our collective surprise, therefore, when he scratched
and clawed his way to No.7 by year’s end. That’s what happens when
you lead the entire AFC in rushing yards (something I didn’t realize
he’d done until just now).
Jacksonville wasted no time snapping up the well-traveled back in
free agency and it’s not difficult to see why. He’s
sturdy, punishes tacklers, and has never rushed for fewer than four
yards per carry. Plus, he’s got a nose for the goal-line,
something his new teammate, T.J. Yeldon, seemed to lack in his rookie
season. So the upstart Jags are already cutting bait with their
second-round pick just one year in, right?
Actually, no, and that’s the problem. It seems Ivory was added
to augment Jacksonville’s rushing attack, not assume the full
load. That’s especially troubling when you consider the Jags
were one of the pass-happiest squads in the business last season
and only ran the ball 354 times, more than only one other team (Miami).
It wasn’t exactly a huge load to shoulder in the first place,
was it? Even if Jacksonville is intent on more balance, it’s
fair for us to wonder how many more carries Ivory stands to receive
with his new team. I believe he’ll make the Jaguars better
and will garner the lion’s share of goal-line looks. I don’t
believe he can do all that and retain his status as a Top 10 running
back option in 2016.
