A couple weeks ago, I identified those quarterbacks,
running backs, and wide
receivers I believe are most likely to tumble from the ranks
of the top 10 this coming season. Now it’s time to discuss
the guys who I think are capable of replacing them in 2014.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
Running Backs Most Likely to Rise in
2014:
Monte Ball is a consensus top ten pick
at running back.
Montee
Ball, DEN: It always makes me nervous when I agree with
everyone else (99% of the people CAN be wrong), but there are only
a couple good reasons why Ball would fail to be a top 10 back in
2014: health (both his and, indirectly, his quarterback’s) and ball
security. The former Badger failed to make a big splash as a rookie
because it’s hard to make a splash when you’re standing on the sidelines.
And he was standing on the sidelines primarily because he was slow
to pick up the Broncos’ pass protection schemes. When you’re the
last line of defense for one of the all-time best QBs in the business,
you’d better know how to keep ornery defenders out of his workshop.
You’d also better be able to hold onto the pigskin when you do get
those precious opportunities and Ball coughed it up three times
in limited touches. That’s not good enough and his first year in
the league was basically wasted as a result.
Nevertheless, Denver parted ways with Ball’s competition, Knowshon
Moreno, this past offseason and essentially handed the second-year
ball-carrier the full-time gig, along with potential fantasy riches.
In that role last season, remember, the less talented but more trustworthy
Moreno tallied a surprising 236.7 total points, good for fifth overall
at the position. Who saw that coming last August? And still, the
Broncos’ brass felt confident cutting Moreno loose because Ball,
by all accounts, made great strides as the season wore on. He’s
even been proclaimed by none other than Peyton Manning himself as
ready to seize the role of lead back.
Ready, that is, if he recovers from an emergency appendectomy in
time to start the season and ward off challengers Ronnie Hillman
and C.J. Anderson. If he does, the sky may be the limit for Ball
(1,500+ total yards and 12-15 scores?). If not…meh. I’ll be wrong
just like everyone else.
Le’Veon
Bell, PIT: While we’re on the subject of being wrong,
there was spirited discussion last preseason about which of the
three stud newcomers – Ball, Eddie Lacy, or Bell – would end up
making the biggest impact as a rookie rock-toter. Most figured it
would be the guy we just talked about or Bell, assuming more touches
would lead to more overall success, pretty standard calculus in
fantasy circles. Just one problem: The guy who ended up getting
the most touches was Lacy and he translated them into the 7th most
points at the position.
Not that the guy I backed, Bell, was chopped liver. Though he didn’t
crack the top 10 as I predicted he would, he did end up garnering
just shy of 300 total touches and, on a per-game basis, just missed
that coveted club. In fact, if you throw out the skewed numbers
Matt Asiata tallied in a throwaway role for the Vikes after Adrian
Peterson went down, Bell WAS a top 10 back on a per game basis.
It’s pretty easy to imagine him joining Lacy in the ranks of the
elite last season had he not missed almost 20% of it (the first
20%) because of a foot sprain suffered in training camp.
The most surprising thing about Bell, actually, considering his
size (6’1”, 244 lbs.) and the traditional sets he operated in for
several years at Michigan St., is how capable he is as a receiver.
In 13 games last season, the former Spartan was targeted 66 times.
By comparison, Giovanni Bernard, Cincinnati’s versatile jitterbug,
only had 71 passes thrown his way (in three more games). LeSean
McCoy, the centerpiece of Philly’s explosive attack, only received
64. If you think “road grader” when you think of Le’Veon Bell, you’re
only half right. Don’t sleep on this Steeler in 2014.
Andre
Ellington, ARI: The top 10 backs last year averaged 6.3
years of NFL experience, almost double the average experience level
of the top 10 from just three years prior. What conclusions can
we draw from this? Well, it could mean the same group of 2010 studs
is still dominating (partially true as 5 of the 10 were on both
lists). Or, it could mean the last three years of NFL drafts haven’t
produced many great turnkey backs (mostly true, with Lacy and Bell
being exceptions). Regardless, I think we’re due for a massive
changing of the guard at the position very soon, as my three breakout
candidates, all sophomores, clearly suggest.
So why Ellington instead of the more celebrated Gio Bernard or the
sturdier Zac Stacy? Upside. It’s an overused word in sports
blather, true, but Ellington simply oozes it. He shared the job
with Rashard Mendenhall all last year. As a result, he didn’t
receive double-digit carries until Week 8. In fact, he only touched
the ball 156 times total in 2013, about 10 per game. And yet, he
still ranked as the 25th most successful back (126.3 points) overall.
For comparison’s sake, that’s about 40 fewer fantasy
points than Bernard on 70 fewer touches. It’s only 30 fewer
points than Stacy, who netted a full 120 more touches than the Cardinals’
surprise star. Clearly, all Ellington needs is an opportunity.
Exit Mendenhall, enter opportunity. The former Steeler abruptly
called it quits this summer, paving the way for Ellington to take
over. Bruce Arians, doing his best Doug Marrone impersonation, quickly
promised 25-30 touches per game. Though that’s not happening
(fool me twice…), about 18-20 sounds like a legit target.
If Andre Ellington averages 20 touches per game and performs like
he did last year, he’s very likely a top 5 RB.
Next: Wide Receivers
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