Let’s examine the Top 10 wide receivers from 2011—along
with those who dropped out from 2010—and see if we can identify
some potential underachievers for the upcoming 2012 season.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default
standard scoring.
Missed the Cut in 2011 (7 of 10):
B. Lloyd, D. Bowe, G. Jennings, R. Wayne, H. Nicks, A. Johnson,
S. Johnson
Here’s a wide receiver I absolutely would draft to
fill a running back slot if I could: Megatron. Nope, wouldn’t
even hesitate. He’s the total package a la Randy Moss circa
2003. After Johnson, things get a bit muddy. Seven of the ten top
wideouts from 2010 failed to make the grade in 2011. This after
seven failed to duplicate the feat in 2010, and six the year before
that, and…. I think you get my drift. It’s tough staying
on top when you’re a wide receiver, and the reasons are myriad.
First up, per the ushe, is the dreaded injury bug. Andre Johnson,
the Texans’ phenomenal pass-snatcher, was the most celebrated
name to get chopped down last season, succumbing to a balky hamstring
just four games in. On top of that, he underwent arthroscopic knee
surgery in May—a procedure necessitated by a late season hyperextension
incident. Anyone else starting to think this guy’s maybe a
bit too fragile? Greg Jennings, the Packers’ star wideout,
missed several games, as well, due to a bum knee. He probably could
have cracked the Top 10 had he continued playing, which is pretty
remarkable since he competed for looks with the No. 2 guy on the
2011 list. Hakeem Nicks only missed a single game last year but
also just missed breaking into the Top 10 by about eight or so fantasy
points. Think that DNP mattered? Also, he proceeded to wreck his
foot during an offseason OTA practice. Not sure what that has to
do with anything, but maybe it’s karma for that ridiculous
Hail Mary he used to bury my Packers in January. Nope, still not
bitter.
Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe, Reggie Wayne, and Steve Johnson were
all relatively healthy in 2011. They failed to match their 2010
output because, frankly, they didn’t get much help. Lloyd
was marooned in Denver where they decided to turn back the clock
to 1920 and run the single wing. Only a midseason trade to St. Louis
improved his stock (albeit not by a lot). Bowe lost his signal-caller,
Matt Cassel, in Week 10 and scored just once after that. Mr. Wayne
had to make a go of it without longtime battery mate, Peyton Manning,
and the results were predictably ghoulish. Finally, Stevie Johnson
surprised many by not completely sucking after a breakout (some
would say anomalous) 2010 season. His quarterback, however, did
completely suck. Good thing they didn’t reward the former
Ivy Leaguer with a huge…OK, never mind.
The Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the
Top Ten This Year:
Jordy
Nelson, GB: Unless you dozed off for a minute there,
you already know I’m a Packers homer. No apologies forthcoming,
and I have the conch so you’re just gonna hafta deal. On the bright
side, I’m not the kind of homer that can’t maintain some measure
of authorial objectivity and basic journalistic integrity. So, yes,
I do love Jordy Nelson. However, there are warning signs galore
if you’re thinking of drafting him any earlier than, say, the fourth
or fifth round.
First, he was targeted fewer than 100 times in 2011, by far the
fewest number of anyone in the Top 10. Of those 96, he caught a
mere 68 balls, low by contemporary standards and the second fewest
receptions of any Top 10 member. Clearly, the unsung farm boy from
K State maximized his opportunities and hit some home runs. In fact,
his 18.7 yards-per-catch figure was good for fifth in the league.
Is that a sustainable number year over year? Maybe if you’re
Vincent Jackson. Nelson’s career average prior to last season
was 12.7 per grab. Hmmm.
Second, he scored a whole bunch of touchdowns. Yay! We love touchdowns!
It bears noting, however, that five of those scores came in the
final two games of the regular season—games that were conveniently
missed by the guy usually responsible for Green Bay’s receiving
scores, Greg Jennings. It isn’t hard for this Packer Backer
to conceive of Jennings and Nelson flip-flopping in the pecking
order for 2012.
Finally, let’s talk some more about one of those last two
games, the last one. It was ridiculous. I’m talking arena
ball ridiculous (45-41, Pack). Matt Flynn got the start for Aaron
Rodgers and Coach McCarthy let him audition for a starting job against
a completely uninterested Lions defense. Nelson was the chief beneficiary
of the resultant travesty. Minus that game, Nelson probably ends
up being the fourth- or even fifth-ranked receiver for 2011. Just
sayin’.
Wallace's holdout is causing him to miss
valuable time learning Todd Haley's system.
Mike
Wallace, PIT: Wallace’s 2011 roughly mirrored Jordy Nelson’s,
minus the part where he scores 15 touchdowns. As a part of the Pittsburgh
offense, Wallace was targeted about 20 more times, caught four more
passes, and averaged 16.6 yards per reception, good for a Top 15
finish in that category. Only thing is, that figure actually brought
Wallace’s career yards-per-catch average down. See, unlike Nelson,
the former Reb actually is a bona fide home run hitter, and a dangerous
one at that. He’s widely regarded as one of the two or three fastest
receivers in the league and is a threat to score from pretty much
anywhere on the field, which he did to the tune of eight receiving
touchdowns in 2011.
For this type of production, he feels like he should be paid Larry
Fitzgerald money. Wait, what? Never mind for a sec that Wallace’s
best year (2010) wouldn’t even qualify as one of Mr. Fitzgerald’s
best five years. How about the fact that Fitzgerald was able to
post commensurate numbers while teaming up with (ahem) John Skelton
as opposed to Ben Roethlisberger? OK, stop laughing. Wallace is
the only restricted free agent in the NFL currently holding out
for more cake. Protracted contract disputes, as we discussed in
the running backs section, rarely end well for fantasy owners.
There’s also this to consider: Todd Haley is the new offensive
shot caller in Pittsburgh after Bruce Arians was effectively fired
in January. One thing Haley is likely to bring to the Steel City
is a more balanced attack. At the very least, it will be markedly
different, and Wallace is already missing valuable time learning
this new system that probably won’t benefit him as much, anyway.
Sounds like trouble, no?
Vincent
Jackson, TB: V-Jax finally landed the payday he has long
sought, but, from a fantasy perspective at least, it has to be considered
a Pyrrhic victory. This is assuming he actually cares about his
fantasy value, of course. Jackson transitions from Norv Turner’s
high-flying and fantasy-friendly San Diego offense to what many
feel will be a conservative, run-oriented attack in Tampa under
new coach, Greg Schiano. And by “many,” I of course mean “Greg Schiano.”
Yikes! When the head man is all but advertising a run-first attack,
I’m thinking we shouldn’t be too optimistic about his new wideout’s
chances of remaining in the Top 10.
To be fair, Coach Schiano won’t exactly be installing the
wishbone. Rather, he wants to play solid defense, pound the football
between the tackles, and then take some shots down the field. And
very few receivers do “down the field” as well as Vincent
Jackson. The only problem is, Josh Freeman isn’t exactly Philip
Rivers. Nor are Tampa’s other receivers likely to draw attention
away from Jackson as Antonio Gates did in San Diego. He’s
unquestionably “the man” now and a purported “leader”
for a young team. Good for him. Nevertheless, those appellations
won’t do much to secure his spot in the Top 10 for 2012.
Next: Quarterbacks
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