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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 8
11/1/16

Mega-Bye Weeks have begun. With so many players on the sidelines, information becomes critical. At the Buzz, we understand and in response offer up this Week 8 recap. Onward!

Derek Carr

Derek Carr has finished as a QB1 in four out of eight games while sporting a 17:3 TD to INT ratio.


The Raiders: Relevant Once Again


The Raiders will get a lot of press this week for forging a 6-2 record through eight weeks. And, good for them. But, being 6-2 doesn’t make you a fantasy relevant franchise week in and week out. Throwing for 513 yards and 4 TDs very much does. Derek Carr has been sneaking up on greatness for over a year now as few people actually knew he threw for nearly 4,000 yards last year to go along with 32 TDs against only 13 INTs. This year’s pace is even better as Carr is currently on track for 4,642 yards passing, 34 TDs and 6 INTs. Those are easily top shelf fantasy starting QB numbers. In addition to Carr, two of fantasy’s top 10 WRs are also in Oakland as Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have combined for 1,356 yards and 8 TDs. Can both keep up the pace? Considering Oakland lacks a true bell-cow back and doesn’t have the defense to slow other teams down (dead last in passing yards allowed), the future looks bright for this trio. But, Denver’s pass defense looms in Week 9, so temper expectations for the immediate future while elevating them longer term.

The Incredible Significance of “Game Flow”

Which QB was better in Week 8: Cam Newton or Blake Bortles? To the casual, or non-fantasy fan, the answer might be Newton. After all, he led his team to a ten-point win in which the team (Carolina) scored 30 points. But, in terms of standard fantasy scoring, he netted 14 points while Blake Bortles produced 32. Bortles looked bad for nearly three quarters and struggled to generate consistent offense. And yet, when the smoke cleared in Nashville, his numbers were some of the best of the week. All of that is to say that game flow remains the biggest factor in fantasy football. Teams that fall behind early will throw, throw, throw and will accumulate big fourth quarter points against soft, prevent defenses. On the flip side, when you build a big lead (Carolina), a guy like Jonathan Stewart (120 total yards, 2 TDs) becomes the primary beneficiary as the clock-eating lead back. So, if you’re looking for QB/WR/TE production, falling behind is often best while getting ahead by a couple of scores always improves the fortunes of a running back. Unless, of course, you’re a Tom Brady owner as Brady defies all game flow rules by simply keeping his foot on the pedal until mid-fourth quarter. It’s nice to know that somebody is counter culture.

Better not Fumble…or Else

Sometimes, a fumble can lead to a virtual benching the following week for a running back. Sometimes, the benching is immediate. Such was the case with two running backs on Sunday, one of which was saved by a TD run and the other of which likely lost some games for a whole host of owners. Ryan Mathews’ second lost fumble of the season in Week 7 no doubt played into the eight snaps he received Sunday night. Meanwhile, Darren Sproles hogged nearly all of the work out of the backfield including a number of runs on first down. Like I said, if you started Mathews, at least you received points for his one-yard TD plunge. No such luck for those counting on Mark Ingram. Ingram’s day ended abruptly after his second lost fumble in as many weeks and Tim Hightower (26 carries, 102 yards) took the reins from there. Sproles and Hightower are both long in the tooth and not built for workhorse roles week in and week out, so don’t expect Mathews and Ingram to be phased out completely. But, if you were counting on one of those guys to be your No.2 RB in November/December, you might want to start making alternate plans.

How to Ruin a Perfect Matchup: A Seahawks Tale

Week 8 should have been the beginning of something good for the Seattle offense, particularly Russell Wilson. After all, the game was in New Orleans with perfect (dome) conditions and a horrible defense on tap. But, when the smoke cleared on Sunday afternoon, it was the same old outcome for Wilson and his crew. Wilson’s third straight game without a touchdown pass was almost unfathomable given his opponent and likely represented the last straw for owners waiting on him to turn his season around. The slump has now turned into something much worse: A season killer. Look around your leagues and see which players the worst teams in the league have in common. I’d venture to say Wilson will come up often in those examinations along with a couple of other players to be noted shortly…

The Beginning of the Booker Era?

By far, the biggest fantasy football news between Weeks 7 and 8 was the injury and subsequent loss of C.J. Anderson for the remainder of the fantasy season. As a result, Devontae Booker owners were given a gift that they couldn’t wait to open on Sunday. So, what was the verdict? Let’s just say the Booker show opened to mixed reviews. He found the end zone for a second straight week (good), and he caught 5 passes (good), but he also averaged less than 3 yards a carry on 19 totes (not good). Teams are going to load the box to try to take away Denver’s running game and the result is going to be a lot more games like what we saw on Sunday. Bottom line: Booker is a fantastic RB2 for the rest of the season. But, if you’re looking for RB1 numbers, you’re probably being more wishful than realistic.

Nothing Restores an Offense like a Trip to Cleveland

Earlier this season, the Buzz declared the Jets to be one of the top five offenses in the league. Famous last words. Although the loss of Eric Decker did throw the offense out of rhythm, the Jets have been a work in progress ever since that declaration, particularly in the passing game. All that said, nothing restores offensive prowess like a game against the Browns. Cleveland under Hue Jackson is good enough on offense to compete with teams for three quarters, but their defense doesn't allow them to prevail. And so, predictably, Matt Forte enjoyed a two-TD game and Quincy Enunwa returned to being a fantasy factor. As for who will enjoy Cleveland's hospitality next, think Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, and Giants in that order. Speaking of Cowboys...

Dak & Dez: Trending Up

First of all, welcome back Dez Bryant! The world of fantasy football is more exciting with you in it. Now, let's talk about who benefits most with Bryant back in the fold. Dak Prescott without Dez Bryant has been solid in terms of fantasy production, netting at least 20 points (standard performance scoring) in each of his past five games. Those games included three rushing TDs to boost overall totals. With Bryant, however, Prescott can generate better “downfield” yardage to go along with the rushing touchdowns, making him a budding version of Cam Newton. With a great offensive line and a superstar young RB, Dallas will likely remain less pass-happy than some teams, but Prescott is a bona fide QB1 with Bryant and if you've got him as your backup, you might think about trading your “starter” for a position of greater need and sticking with Dak from now on. And, as is the case when Bryant is healthy, all other Dallas WRs will now disappear.

Tyreek Hill: An Intriguing Prospect


Living in Oklahoma, I got to watch a lot of Tyreek Hill when he played for the OSU Cowboys several years ago. And, I should tell you that he's simply the fastest football player I've ever seen. Now, Hill has scored four touchdowns for Kansas City and is catching 85 percent of his targets. The last two weeks alone, he's scored in double digits while tallying over 100 yards from scrimmage in Week 8. Hill is smallish, but he's an inch taller than the Ravens' Steve Smith and Smith's career has been borderline Hall of Fame, so size doesn't always limit a player's potential or production. I guess my thought is that Hill may be surpassing Jeremy Maclin as the best fantasy wide receiver on a team that seems to be increasing his role from week to week. He won't be a PPR giant anytime soon, but if your league is just about yardage and TDs, Hill is a WR3 at this point and could trend even higher as fall rolls forward. He is uniquely talented.

And, Now Some Mid-Season Awards: First, The Good Ones

Mid-Season Fantasy MVP: David Johnson
Biggest Surprise at QB: Matt Ryan
Biggest Surprise at RB: Melvin Gordon
Biggest Surprise at WR: Michael Crabtree

And, The Not So Good Ones…

Mid-Season Fantasy LVP (Based on expectations): Russell Wilson
Biggest Bust at QB: See Above
Biggest Bust at RB: Todd Gurley/Jamaal Charles
Biggest Bust at WR: Allen Robinson/DeAndre Hopkins

That'll do it for Week 8. Hope the second half of your season gets off to a great start. Until next Tuesday…