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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 12
12/1/15

And, down the stretch they come! It’s a phrase better suited for horse racing, but the sentiment still applies to fantasy football where most regular seasons are just about done and most fantasy playoffs are set to begin in the next week or two. It’s critical that we digest and understand what happens each week so that we can make good lineup decisions in December. With that in mind, we’re off and running as we review Week 12…

It Takes a Ben to Ignite a Russell

Ever wonder what sort of fantasy quarterback Russell Wilson would be if Seattle’s defense wasn’t very good? Sunday provided a glimpse into that dynamic as Wilson threw for over 300 yards (which he rarely does) and also pitched five touchdowns. He had previously only thrown for more than one TD in a game this year twice. Seattle had no answer ultimately for Ben Roethlisberger, whose 450 yards passing against their supposed elite defense exposed Seattle as a team living on reputation this year as much as anything and once again underscored the power of the Pittsburgh offense when everyone is healthy. The two players who got taken along for a magical ride in the game also were Doug Baldwin (145 yards and 3 TDs) and Markus Wheaton (200+ yards and 1 TD). So, what can we expect from both passing attacks moving forward? If you own Wilson, Baldwin, or any other Seahawk not named Rawls, beware. The opponents that remain are incapable of getting into anything resembling a shoot-out with Seattle (Matt Schaub and Nick Foles for example) and as such, they will return to being a run-first unit. Losing Jimmy Graham for the rest of the season will also take its toll on overall offensive numbers. Pittsburgh, however, will have to throw to keep up with opponents like Cincinnati and Denver and should keep the train rolling. Antonio Brown owners just have to hope that the Markus Wheaton era is a one-week thing…

The Most Influential Player in Fantasy Football Right Now Is…

Adrian Peterson and it’s not close. At a position ransacked by injuries and running-back-by-committees, comes a throwback player who is putting up throwback numbers at the position. Peterson was the only running back to run for over 115 yards this weekend, netting 158 on the ground against the team that came into the game No.1 in the league against the rush. Barring an injury, Peterson looks poised to make the biggest impact upon the fantasy playoffs of any player as Minnesota will continue to employ a conservative run-based attack that features Peterson almost exclusively. When you look at fantasy football MVPs at the end of this season, expect Peterson to be the last man standing.

The “Big Three”, Brandon, and Beckham

While Baldwin and Wheaton were doing damage, the best three receivers in fantasy football were surprisingly quiet…in some cases, shockingly so. DeAndre Hopkins appeared to have the matchup of the century vs. the undermanned and overmatched New Orleans defense, but with Houston getting up big early and Drew Brees never being able to solve the Texans’ scheme, Hopkins was limited to 5 catches for 36 yards, easily his lowest output on the season. Antonio Brown suffered a similar fate matched up with Richard Sherman, and Julio Jones managed only 56 yards with no TDs against the formidable Vikings defenders. All in all, it was a no-TD, no-impact sort of day for the “Big Three”. In terms of top ten WRs who did make a splash, the biggest splashes came in the form of Brandon Marshall and Odell Beckham Jr., who both eclipsed the 130-yard mark and scored 3 TDs combined. Expect Brown, Hopkins, and Jones to bounce back, but be aware of matchups in December. Julio has two matchups with Carolina and in the case of Hopkins, the defense that players play alongside should be taken into account, too.

If You’re a Student of Recent History…

Then, it should have come as no surprise that Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson shone brightly on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. Stafford has averaged 330 yards on Thanksgiving and Calvin Johnson scored a TD in the Thanksgiving Game for a seventh straight year. Only this year, Johnson decided it was best to score three times. If you are a Stafford owner, Thanksgiving can be a bittersweet reminder of what Stafford is capable of and certainly if you are a Calvin Johnson owner, the same holds true. Detroit seems to be getting its act together on both sides of the ball, making Stafford a solid play moving forward, particularly if you can get to Week 15 when he plays the Saints. I would say that Johnson is set to tear up the Saints in a few weeks as well, but theDeAndre Hopkins effect may remain en vogue for the remainder of the season. Seriously, both guys have good matchups coming up and remain relevant beyond just their holiday of feasting.

And Now I Will Make The Object Disappear…

Disappearing acts this time of year can keep you out of the playoffs. First, if we’re going to anoint Todd Gurley as the next big thing, we have to hold him accountable for performances that come in well below expectations. The trouble with Gurley is that St. Louis is so bad at the quarterback position that teams are now stacking the box just to stop the Rams’ only big weapon outside of Tavon Austin. Gurley’s numbers have slowed since Week 8 and this past weekend, they came to a screeching halt. Gurley should remain in all lineups, but keep expectations modest at this point as no RB can be truly dynamic without an NFL-caliber starting QB. Other “disappearing” players in Week 12 included James Jones, who teased with a resurgent Week 11 after previously becoming invisible, and Lamar Miller, who netted only five carries on Sunday. I’m not a genius by any means, but even I know that a 58-9 pass to run ratio isn’t going to win you many games unless Tom Brady is your quarterback. Apparently, Dolphin ownership knows that too, as Miami’s OC (Lazor) is without a job as of yesterday morning.

Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy has posted back to back 100-yd rushing games giving his owners a boost late in the season.


Is a First-Round Bust Still a Bust if They Turn It On in late November?

It’s a question that brings us to the curious cases of Eddie Lacy and C.J. Anderson, who we have chronicled all season long here at the Buzz. Cris Collinsworth made the observation on Sunday Night Football that Anderson and Lacy seem to play better as weather conditions worsen and he may be onto something as both ran for over 100 yards this past week and scored touchdowns (in Anderson’s case, he scored two). No RB situations have been more maddening this season for fantasy owners than the on again, off again sagas in Green Bay and Denver, but it’s entirely possible that the two runners (Lacy, Anderson) who were projected to be highly productive before the season began may be ready to assume much bigger roles down the stretch. Is it too late for those that drafted Lacy and Anderson? It very well may be. But, if you traded for one of those previously labeled first round “busts”, you may get a diamond out of the deal in the month that is to come. With both offenses struggling through the air, the prospect of Lacy and Anderson being major factors down the stretch is on the rise.

It's All About Who You Are Playing Against

Last week, we regretfully informed readers that the San Diego offense was in shambles and it still is. What we failed to account for was just how bad the Jacksonville defense was at stopping even a disjointed offense. The result? A one-week reprieve from the demise for Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and company. Alfred Morris is the same player today that he was a week ago. It's just amazing how facing the Giants defense can make him look reborn. The NFL has a few good defenses right now (Carolina, Houston, Minnesota), but it also has its share of really bad ones. And truth be told, any skill position player, no matter his points per game to date, has a better shot at producing vs. the likes of New Orleans, Pittsburgh, New York (Giants), Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and San Diego than he does against the better defenses mentioned. This is fantasy football 101, right? Yes...and no. We all tend to look at situations like the one Rivers or Morris find themselves in and see it one-dimensionally. Study the defenses your players are playing against in the weeks to come. I'm not saying to start Nick Foles if he has a better matchup than Carson Palmer, but if all other factors are somewhat close, always choose the softer defense to start a player against. It could be the difference between scratching your head wondering what just happened and calling yourself a league champion.

That's all we've got for you here at the Buzz this week. If you are a Gronk owner, here's hoping that your guy gets on the field again soon. He makes all things fantasy more exciting when he's a part of the mix. See you here again next week- same time and channel.