Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.

Sterling Shepard: The Packers have given up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers.

1) Sterling Shepard - DK Salary $5,500

Shepard has started his NFL career on fire and this match up versus Green Bay presents a terrific opportunity for it to continue . The Giants are expected to be down by a lot, the weather is nothing but clear skies, and a lot of the defensive attention is going to be focused on Odell Beckham. Look for Shepard to get 10 adjusted opportunities and have a big game.

7 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (clear skies)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by more than 7: +2 AO

Totals: $5,500 / 10 AO = $550 per adjusted opportunity

2) Brandon Marshall – DK Salary $7,100

Brandon Marshall is a notorious target magnet. This is even more true with Eric Decker out of the line-up. Last year in 2015 Marshall received an insane 167 targets with Decker on the field. He is averaging nearly 10 targets per game in 2016, continuing to run deep routes, the weather calls for clear skies and finally the Jets are expected be down by more than 7 points. $7,100 is a lot to pay, however the evidence suggests Marshall is a DPAO bargain in Week 5.

10 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (clear skies)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by more than 7: +2 AO

Totals: $7,100 /14= $506 per adjusted opportunity. Great value for a true WR1.

3) Jarvis Landry - DK Salary $7000

Something is wrong with the Miami offense. In response, Adam Gase is blaming himself and shuffling running backs like cards. The inability to run the ball has conversely produced a lot of wide receiver success as they have often been down on the scoreboard. In the first four games of 2016, Jarvis JUICE Landry has received a whopping 41 targets and has turned that into a strong 377 yards and a touchdown. Gase has a history of teams struggling with his offense for the first few games, this happened in both Denver and Chicago, but once he is able to get it rolling, it typically produces fantasy stars. Get Juice at a slight discount while they are working out the kinks and look for him to explode soon.

11 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 0-5: -1 AO

Totals: $7,000 /11 AO = $636 per adjusted opportunity

4) Jamison Crowder DK Salary $4,600

Averaging nearly 7 targets per game, Crowder has become an under-the-radar fantasy starter. He has 2 touchdowns in four games and leads the league in red zone targets. That’s right, Jamison Crowder leads the NFL with 8 red zone targets. If you watch, you will see they use him underneath and laterally to help stretch the field. This gives him tremendous opportunity to produce, and even though DPAO does not factor that into consideration, I felt it should be mentioned. In terms of DPAO, he is playing in good weather this weekend and the Redskins are expected be trailing. Look for Crowder to get around 9 adjusted opportunities, and outperform his price tag.

7 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 0-5: +1 AO

Totals: $4,600/ 9 AO = $511 per adjusted opportunity