Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.

Week 3 DPAO picks

1) Marvin Jones- DK Salary $6,200

Okay, so the world is starting to catch on now. Jones’ salary has increased by $700 dollars. However, I believe he is still a great bargain. He is the WR1 in Detroit averaging 10 targets per game and is projected to be playing from behind.

10 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) aDOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO (rain expected, however just a light drizzle)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 7: +2 AO

Totals: $6,200 / 11 AO = $563 per adjusted opportunity

2) Tajae Sharpe – DK Salary $4,700

A lot of people were high on Sharpe last week, however I didn’t see it. He was facing Darius Slay (a top rated corner for the Lions) and the game was projected to be close, allowing TEN to use the playbook they want (run, run, run). I like him a lot more this week at home against the Raiders.

9 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) aDOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 0-5: -1 AO

Totals: $4,700 /9 AO = $522 per adjusted opportunity

3) Michael Crabtree - DK Salary $6,000

It worries me that Clive Walford is starting to siphon targets away from Cooper and Crabtree, however I still see him as a strong play versus the Tennessee corners. Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox are both struggling this year.

8 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) aDOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 0-5: +1 AO

Totals: $6,000 / 10 AO= $600 per adjusted opportunity

4) Travis Benjamin – DK Salary $5,200

7 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) aDOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO for dome
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 0-5: +1 AO

Totals: $5,200/ 9 AO = $577 per adjusted opportunity