As discussed in my previous article, our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. This will enable us to build a lineup with four wide receivers potentially getting 40-plus targets, putting us in the best position to succeed. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that - deep routes or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems. Let’s see how we did in Week 2.

Marvin Jones was again near the top of the DPAO rankings coming in at $458 per opportunity (see data below). I don’t understand this. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. Neither Fanduel nor Draftkings seems to have caught on to the fact that Marvin Jones is the WR1 in Detroit, and thus I will continue selecting him at this price. He is second in the NFL in targets, seventh in receiving, and at his current salary ($5500), the value is simply too good to pass up.

Next up on our DPAO results was Michael Crabtree. Again, for the second straight week he too came out of the formula looking like a great bargain. Last year he averaged 12 targets per game, and this year he is still getting the looks. He actually only received 5 targets, losing most of them to Oakland’s emerging tight end Clive Walford. However, the model and his history, suggested 10 adjusted opportunities. In my Week 3 predictions (coming Thursday), his 5 targets might hurt his value.

Will Fuller was the next wide receiver to come out of the model with an excellent value rating and a new DPAO high score ($381). He is looking like the real deal averaging 10 targets per game and running routes with an incredible average depth per target of 20 yards.

Here is where I totally disregarded my own bloody model and got caught up remembering in the Saints-Giants fantasy wet dream from last season. Despite the model telling me that I am paying nearly $900 per opportunity for Odell Beckham Jr. (he averages 10 targets per game, the weather called for light rain, and the game was expected to be close) I somehow still selected him. And how did he do? Exactly as we expected he would do - 11 bloody targets, and I paid nearly $900 for each of them. Don’t be me. Follow the numbers.

Regardless, as you can see below, the other wide receivers pulled more than their weight and I was able to come out with a strong score. Losing Danny Woodhead was a tough blow. It was looking like another easy cash game win until he was ruled out for the game with a knee injury. Another mediocre 8 points from him and it would have been a top 25 lineup. However, something tells me he had a far worse day than me, so I’m going to let that go.

10 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 0-5: +1 AO

Totals: $5,500 / 12 AO = $458 per adjusted opportunity

2) Michael Crabtree – DK Salary $6,100

10 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 0-5: -1 AO

Totals: $6,100 /10 AO = $610 per adjusted opportunity

3) Will Fuller- DK Salary $4200

10 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO (this guy is running with a whopping ADOT of 23.4 at the present moment)

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 0-5: -1 AO

Totals: $4,200 / 11 AO= $381 per adjusted opportunity

4) Odell Beckham Jr. – DK Salary $9,500

11 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO for slight rain

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 0-5: +1 AO

Totals: $9,500/ 11 AO = $863 per adjusted opportunity