Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted
Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as
many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible.
The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent.
As mentioned in my previous
articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each
week is more so a result of targets. And failing that –
Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these
three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary,
helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.
Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you
to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not
have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700
per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and
that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.
The price is so low on Allen Robinson that
you have to consider his value in GPP's this weekend.
The biggest challenge facing Robinson is not the other team,
it is his own quarterback. Bortles has struggled to find Robinson
deep this year, and thus, both of their numbers have seriously
suffered. That being said, the Jags are trying to get him the
ball and he is still running deep routes, so there exists the
possibility of a late season surge. Looking forward to this week,
he is averaging 9 targets per game, is playing in good weather,
and is set to face a very beatable Titans secondary. Once we take
these variables into account and factor in his rock bottom salary,
the stars are aligning for Robinson to remind everyone that he
is still a top NFL wide receiver.
9 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Cloudy)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 5: +1
AO
Totals: $4,200 / 12 AO = $350 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
This week Sanu plays the Panthers, a team that has seriously struggled
to contain wide-outs and Sanu is likely to draw coverage from
Leonard Johnson, a player who has allowed a catch on over 80 percent
of targets. That is phenomenally bad. Look for the Falcons to
give Sanu his customary handful of chances that he typically gets
every three or four games, and for this game to remain closer
than predicted.
7 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 3: -1
AO
Totals: $5,100 / 9 AO= $566 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
With 30 targets in his last three games, the Colts have made it
clear that they will ride Hilton so as long as other teams struggle
to contain him. This week, the Colts are playing the Raiders in
a near-perfect matchup, that is projected by Vegas to feature
over 53 points scored. Hilton will likely draw coverage from T.J
Carrie, a player that is being targeted on 20 percent of his routes
covered. In addition, the weather is expected to be good and the
Colts are expected to be playing from behind. The stage is set
for Hilton to have an explosive afternoon.
10 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down 4: +1 AO
Totals: $7,800 / 13 AO= $600 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Ignore his recent struggles. This game versus the Saints offers
Evans the perfect situation to get back on track. He is set to
draw coverage from Ken Crawley, the 106th ranked cover corner,
and Vegas again predicts over 50 points to be scored. Look for
Evans to get over 14 targets, which when combined with his current
salary of $8,500, actually turns him into a budget friendly player.
Start Evans with confidence.
11 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down be down
3: +1 AO
Totals: $8,500 / 14 AO = $607 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
