Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted
Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as
many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible.
The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent.
As mentioned in my previous
articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each
week is more so a result of targets. And failing that –
Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these
three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary,
helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.
Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you
to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not
have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700
per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and
that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.
Hopkins' salary is depressed enough, making
him a consideration against a weak Colts defense.
I loathe to write this for two main reasons. First, he has burned
me in this column before. Second, my opponent that I am playing
in my season long league playoffs is starting Hopkins. Trust fantasy
to make sure the production you need, never comes when he is on
your DFS roster, but instead against you in the first round of
fantasy playoffs. On the plus side however, it was this first
round playoff anxiety that actually provided an impetus to dig
into the numbers and in doing so, revealed a potential bargain.
Hopkins is averaging 9 targets a game, playing in a dome versus
the vulnerable Colts secondary, and is projected by Vegas to be
down by a touchdown. After adjusting for these variables, you
are paying less than $500 per opportunity to succeed. After a
disappointing 2016 campaign, Hopkins is approaching extreme value
territory, and for a player of his caliber, I believe he is finally
worth the dart throw at this price.
9 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (DOME)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 6: +2
AO
Totals: $5,800/ 12 AO = $483 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Crowder was featured in this column last week as a potential bargain
play, and he did not disappoint, hauling in 3 catches for 42 yards
and a touchdown. He also received a robust 9 targets, giving him
78 on the season. What’s more, is Crowder is continually
being targeted in the red zone. In fact, he is top 10 in the NFL
for red zone targets with a hardy 15. With good weather expected
in Philadelphia (compared to many other games this Sunday), and
Vegas predicting this game will have the 3rd highest point total,
look for Crowder to get more red zone targets and continue his
impressive season.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Cloudy)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be even: N/A
Totals: $5,600/ 9 AO= $622 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Players like Malcolm Mitchell are the key to outmaneuvering DFS
sites such as Draftkings. Once they have a large set of data,
they can make very accurate predictions on a player’s floor
and ceiling, and set his salary accordingly. Sometimes however,
as was the case with Marvin Jones or Michael Crabtree earlier
in the year, a player steps into a larger role quickly and he
accelerates at such a pace that his salary cannot keep up. Three
weeks ago Mitchell was a rookie who had barely played any meaningful
snaps and then suddenly he had a breakout game versus San Francisco
for 98 yards and a TD. The following week he put up 42 yards and
2 TDs. At this point he was thought of as an intriguing play,
but one still more suited for GPP or tournaments as we had no
idea of his floor and his snap count was varying. Then both Gronk
and Amendola went down with major injuries and he stepped into
a starting role, hauling in 8 of 10 targets for 80 yards. More
importantly too, he played 67 of 79 snaps. Mitchell is now a starting
WR on one of the NFLs most explosive offenses, averaging over
7 targets in his last three games, and only costs $4,200. Take
a chance on him with a strong matchup versus a beatable Ravens
secondary.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Light Snow)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up 7: -2 AO
Totals: $4,200 / 7 AO= $600 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Tied for third in the NFL in targets with 118, Fitzgerald offers
dependable upside similar to players such as Mike Evans, Antonio
Brown or Odell Beckham Jr., but carries a much lower salary. And
while his ceiling is also lower at his age, he is still an incredibly
effective player and capable of the occasional explosion. In fact,
he is the 7th highest scoring PPR receiver on the year. If we
look forward to this Sunday versus the Dolphins, he is averaging
10 targets per game and the Cardinals are expected to be down.
Not a bad situation for Fitz to add to his league leading 88 receptions
and continue his hot streak.
10 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO (Light Rain)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO While there is
no strong CB to divert the targets, I instead expect targets to
be funneled to Fitz because his coverage man is struggling. Fitzgerald
is set to square off versus Bobby McCain, a corner who has been
besieged in 2016. This season McCain has allowed a reception on
76.5 percent of his targets.
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 2:
+1 AO
Totals: $7,100 / 12 AO = $591 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
