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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Week 15
Value Plays
12/17/15


Game selection is an undervalued skill in DFS. There is no exact science to it, but you can tailor your strategy to your personal goals. Personally I am a one lineup per week cash game person unless extreme value presents itself where I like multiple plays and then I hedge. On FanDuel in particular, if you trot out one lineup it is to your advantage to do a higher volume of head-to-head matchups as opposed to 50/50s.

Touchdowns are the most volatile stat in DFS and the hardest to predict week to week. On a site like FanDuel, there is a higher degree of variance from the impact of touchdowns having such a large effect on our scores with no PPR or yardage bonuses. Head-to-Head contests in my opinion allow you a higher floor week-to-week, as you are able to pick your opponents as well as open yourself up to still winning “some” of your money back with a poor week. A poor week in 50/50s nets you nothing if you fall below the cash line. Something to consider, depending on your own personal goals.

Moving forward to Week 15, there are a ton of options to consider, especially at the quarterback position. There is also clear value at both running back and wide receiver that I will most definitely be taking advantage of. Below is my current cash lineup as well as some detailed value plays. Be sure to check back on Saturday/Sunday morning for an update.


Week 15 FanDuel Lineup

Value Plays


WR – Michael Floyd, ARI ($6100) @ PHI

You must find a way to have exposure to the Cardinals offense every single week. Michael Floyd has been arguably Arizona’s best receiver as of late and he comes in as the cheapest out of the top three. This week against the Eagles is a great spot for Floyd, as he will get to take advantage of a banged up secondary against a team that likes to push the pace. Vegas has this game as one of the highest point totals of the week and Floyd is a constant threat to catch a deep ball. He has four straight game (while healthy) eclipsing 100 yards and will continue to be a red-zone threat. For $6100 he is in a great position to hit value yet again.

RB – Charcandrick West, KC ($5900) @ BAL

Spencer Ware did not practice on Wednesday and if West is given a “feature” role we know what he can do with it. The matchup isn’t great, but then again his matchup earlier in the season against Denver wasn’t great either (161 yds, 2 TDs). His floor is naturally high because of his pass catching ability and he will be given volume to be successful. He is nearly a must play this week at a price. His floor is 100 total yards this week and $5900 allows you to build up other parts of your cash lineup.

RB –Denard Robinson, JAX ($6300) vs. ATL

Denard Robinson is another option, like West, that is very active in the passing game which raises his floor. He also has fallen into a larger role as T.J. Yeldon (knee) will not play Week 15. The concern will be Robinson’s red-zone usage as the team seems content to throw jump balls to Allen Robinson or target TE Julius Thomas but at this price, volume is never a bad way to go in cash.

WR – Calvin Johnson, DET ($8000) @ NO

Calvin Johnson’s price has not been this low all season and he happens to be facing a Saints team that bleeds fantasy points to everyone and anyone. He has Thanksgiving Megatron touchdown upside in a game that will prove to be a shootout. There is no one on the Saints that can stop him. His ceiling is not even close to what it once was but his floor is safe in Week 15. He is averaging nine targets per game and will have no problem hitting value in cash with that kind of involvement in the offense.

WR – Tyler Lockett, SEA ($6000) vs. CLE

Everyone is on Doug Baldwin, and for good reason, but too many people are asleep on the emergence of rookie Tyler Lockett. His targets are consistently trending up and he is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, including on kick and punt returns. The stack with Seahawks defense is an appealing “double dip” option and is also cash viable. This week Cleveland is another juicy matchup for Lockett and Seattle will be forced to throw dealing with the mess that is their backfield.

TE – Ben Watson, NO ($5600) vs. DET

Watson is still a favorite of Drew Brees in the red zone and a big part of this Saints offense. In a week where we expect a shootout yet again, there are worse places to put your money than on a tight end facing Detroit who struggles to cover the position. At $5600 he is a great value option at tight end for Week 15.

WR – Golden Tate, DET ($6900) @ NO

I mentioned above that Calvin Johnson is averaging nine targets per game but Golden Tate is actually averaging 9.7 per game. His numbers are similar to Megatron’s but you can get Tate cheaper. Tate is a clear value this week and multi-touchdown upside is real against the Saints. He should provide a good floor for cash games on volume alone and quarterback Matthew Stafford will look to him extensively. The Saints give up a lot, and they will give up Tate in Week 15.

RB – David Johnson, ARI ($6500) @ PHI

David Johnson is becoming a favorite weekly value play for me. The Cardinals offense will get him in position to score as much as any team in the league and he is active in the passing game. Teams have to respect their receiving weapons enough that Johnson doesn’t often see a loaded box in front of him. For some reason his price has not gone up drastically even after two weeks of solid production. Keep riding Johnson in cash until he lets you down.