Tampa Bay has finished the last two seasons in the middle of
the pack when it comes to passing yards per game. The difference
in 2017 will be the depth added to the roster. At the receiver
position a very capable and dangerous DeSean Jackson will give
Winston a much needed consistent receiver opposite Mike Evans.
All of the moving parts in the backfield from a season ago have
created a deeper, more confident stable of runners that offer
multiple pass-catching options for a quarterback that had to force
the ball more than he should have in 2016. The Bucs’ commitment
was personified by their decision to use a first round draft choice
on O.J. Howard. The dynamic tight end from ‘Bama is a nightmare
match up for defenses that should have a positive impact on Winston’s
red zone efficiency.
Despite increasing his average fantasy points per game by 6.5
points from 2015 to 2016, Winston remained on the border of being
a true fantasy starter a year ago. He ranked outside the top twelve
on a per game basis but finished tenth in overall fantasy points
at the position. Nevertheless, he was able to score at least 20
fantasy points in nine of his sixteen games played and failed
to post at least 15 fantasy points just once. Winston may not
be a top five quarterback but he is the type of quarterback you
should be targeting after the top players at the position are
gone because he will rarely lose you a week and comes at a much
more affordable price. Mike Glennon left for greener pastures
in Chicago so Ryan Fitzpatrick was brought in to hold the clip
board. The former Jet has seen his completion percentage decline
in each of the past three seasons so anyone owning a Buc this
year is hoping Winston stays upright for another 16 games.
In 2016, Martin reminded fantasy owners of just how disappointing
he can be before checking himself into rehab prior to the end
of the regular season. So what can we make of his outlook for
2017? The facts begin with his four-game suspension that started
at the end of the 2016 season. That means he has only three games
left to serve and will be able to return Week 4 just in time for
four straight games against quality defenses (NYG, NE, @ARI, @BUF).
Martin’s injury history (dating back to college) includes
four lower body injuries and one shoulder injury. That isn’t
that much worse than the average back these days but knowing that
he could miss a game or two is worth noting when you are considering
investing in a player already tabbed to miss three games. The
good news is that he is on the right side of 30 and the team is
on the upswing. Though many fantasy owners will likely avoid the
Muscle Hamster, there are still miles left on the tires that shouldn’t
be ignored. Martin should return to his role of lead dog in the
backfield making him a solid bet to get at least 80 total yards
each week he plays. That may not be RB1 material but there is
a place for a veteran running back that can catch the ball out
of the backfield. The key will come down to what each owner is
willing to pay for his services or how much of a discount is required
to take on a player that is probably a RB2 at maximum value and
best valued as a quality RB3 outside the top 25 fantasy running
backs.
The Buccaneers scooped up Rodgers in Week 2 of the 2016 season
shortly after the Bears released him. He quickly provided quality
depth for a Bucs team that had just lost Doug Martin. Rodgers
had previously played in Dirk Koetter’s offense while in
Atlanta so it wasn’t a surprise to see him make an impact
once he his number was called. The perfect storm for Rodgers occurred
when Charles Sims joined Doug Martin on the sidelines creating
ample opportunities for touches over the middle of the year. When
the dust settled, Jacquizz set career highs in rushing attempts,
rushing yards and perhaps most importantly yards per carry. Rodgers’
4.3 ypc was a big reason the Bucs extended a two-year deal to
Rodgers this spring. Rodgers wasn’t asked to do much in
the passing game last year but he has two 50-catch seasons to
his credit so there is potential for more fantasy output if the
Bucs tap into that element of his skill set. He’s set to
enter the year as the starter while Martin serves the rest of
his four-game suspension and figures to provide the team with
a quality backup once Martin returns to action.
RB Charles
Sims (2016 RB Rank – No.64, 6.6 FPts/G)
Sims has not been able to live up to the promise he flashed at
West Virginia. Most of that can be attributed to an assortment
of injuries that have derailed two of his three years as a pro.
Even when healthy, Sims has not been able to find the end zone
and Tampa’s decision to draft a similarly talented player,
Jeremy McNichols, shouldn’t excite fantasy owners. At best,
Sims will overcome his health woes and be used in a limited third-down
role unless injuries knock out multiple players above him on the
depth chart. Both Sims and McNichols have already dealt with injuries
this off-season but are on track to battle with Peyton Barber
during training camp. Like most rookie running backs that make
their living in the passing game, McNichols faces a steep learning
curve in pass protection before getting anywhere close to the
field on game day. Barber needed multiple situations to break
his way before getting onto the field last season and even then
he had paltry results. He is best left on the waiver wire-if he
even makes the team out of camp.
Can you say rebound? Missed opportunities plagued the Winston
to Evans connection in 2015, but the two turned the corner last
season to make Evans one of the games brightest young fantasy
stars. If there was a chink in his armor last year it was in his
consistency as the year wore on. Winston’s favorite target
averaged 15 fantasy points per game over the first six games but
only 12.5 over the next five games. In fact, Evans only found
the end zone in four of his ten games after Week 7. Repeating
last year’s lofty totals won’t be easy now that the
team has improved the talent pool but he is a better bet than
most to reach double-digit touchdowns and post 1200 receiving
yards putting him firmly in the top ten fantasy wide receivers
for 2017. Evans has already proved he can be a legit WR1 for fantasy
owners but the offense may need to take a step forward for him
to maintain his ranking. Still, the former Aggie offers the upside
to finish as the league’s top fantasy receiver with one
of the highest floors at the position so you will need to pony
up some extra bucks if you want to roster him this year.
Reinforcing the depth at the receiver position was finally given
the attention it demanded after 2016 saw a revolving door of flawed
options lining up opposite Mike Evans. Four receivers not named
Evans played over 20-percent of the offensive snaps a year ago
but only one saw the field on at least half of the team’s
plays. Inserting Jackson into the mix will allow Dirk Koetter
to utilize more of the field and improve his quarterback’s
passing efficiency in the process. Jackson will turn 31 in December
and hasn’t caught more than 56 balls since 2013 but he isn’t
going to be asked to lead the way. He slides into a very comfy
secondary role opposite one of the NFL’s elite playmakers
and should be able to use his burst and route running to make
the passing game more dynamic. If Jackson can acclimate himself
to the offense, he will be a useful flex option for fantasy owners
this season.
Humphries was the only Bucs receiver to play at least half of
the team’s offensive plays a year ago but he will have a
tough time being as productive in 2017. Tampa Bay’s offense
is not geared for the type of passing numbers to allow a third
receiver to be much of a fantasy asset without an injury opening
up increased targets. Since being drafted out of Clemson in 2015,
Humphries has become more involved in the offense each year, highlighted
by his 83 targets last season. If an injury to Evans or Jackson
were to happen mid-season, Humphries will be a quality waiver
add in most formats so don’t be asleep at the wheel. Tampa
added more depth to the position in the third round of this year’s
draft by selecting Penn State’s Chris Godwin. The rookie
has impressed both the coaching staff and QB Jameis Winston early
in OTAs giving him an edge on the rest of the Bucs’ other
depth options. Tampa Bay appears to be upgrading their quality
down the depth chart, but the Bucs’ fantasy wideout options
dry up quickly after DeSean Jackson.
As Tampa Bay’s coaching staff struggled to trust the talented
but troubled Austin Sefarian Jenkins in 2016 they continued to
be impressed with the progress of Brate. The team was forced to
move on from ASJ following a DUI arrest in late September. Armed
with a longer leash, Brate proved to be more than capable of handling
the starting role and was a good not but great fantasy option
during the 2016 campaign. He signed a one-year tender from the
team this spring and remains the favorite to open the year as
the starter. Nevertheless, there are too many limitations to his
fantasy ceiling this year to anoint him a TE1. The addition of
DeSean Jackson and a healthy backfield will eat into an area where
Brate padded his stats last year. More importantly, the Buccaneers
added TE O.J Howard in this year’s draft who should push
for playing time in year one.
A big athletic target was added to the Tampa offense when they
used a first round draft choice on six-foot, six-inch tight end
O.J. Howard from Alabama. Howard has Gronk-like athleticism so
he’s a solid dynasty add, but his redraft value is solely
connected to playing time early on. It’s extremely rare
for rookie tight ends to make a fantasy impact however, the modest
success of Hunter Henry last season (53-482-8) and the shear amount
of impressive rookies at the position could help buck the trend.
Keep an eye on reports throughout the preseason and be ready to
move Howard into the top 12 if he can unseat Brate prior to the
season.
