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Chris Eakin
Staff Writer
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Tight End Target Efficiency
 8/5/08

Tight Ends tend to be the redheaded, stepchild of fantasy football. They don’t get the headlines of their diva wide receiver brethren. As a result they are often overlooked when evaluating for your fantasy draft. By the time your draft rolls around most of your competitors will have read up on the top 20-30 QBs, RBs, and WRs, so TEs can be a good area for you to gain an edge on your opponents.

For evaluating TEs we will continue our look at opportunity efficiency. If you missed the opening article on WR Efficiency then I encourage you to go check it out. The core idea is to create a value for how well a player does in terms of fantasy scoring per opportunity (target). I use this strategy as a means of projecting a player’s possible fantasy value with opportunity being the variable you control.

While last year’s total receptions and yards are a solid indicator of a player’s value they do not tell the whole story. The biggest factor in fantasy scoring is opportunity. It’s also the biggest variable. What I do is take a look at how a player may project statistically if given more or less opportunity. I do this because projections can change with one injury or depth chart change. For example, if receiver ”C” unexpectedly beats out receiver “B” in training camp then all the projections previously done for receiver C’s value are grossly inaccurate because he will now be given much more opportunity.

Using stats readily available here at FFToday.com I will show you how to calculate a new possible projection. Take a WR or TE’s total fantasy points from 2007 and divide it by the number of targets. Presto, you have now created a fantasy point per target efficiency value (FPTs/Tar).

I measure by target rather than reception because it is a better measure of how well a player gets open, catches the ball, how accurate his QB is in delivering it, and many other factors that summarize fantasy point scoring efficiency. If you measure by reception you are not accounting for scoring and yards. If you only measure TDs you are not accounting for yds. Fantasy value is really what we are all trying to determine so why beat around the bush with the myriad of other stats. It’s easier to look at one value that combines all those variables instead of looking at several categories and making a cloudy estimate in your mind.

Now that we are refreshed in Target Efficiency 101 let’s get back to our TE evaluations. Below is a table for the top TE’s last year in order of Fantasy point efficiency per target (FPTs/Tar) in a standard scoring league.

 Fantasy Points / Target - Standard Scoring League
Rk Player Tm Tgt Rec Eff % Yds Yds/C TDs FPts Fpts/Tgt
1 Jerramy Stevens TB 21 18 85.7% 189 10.5 4 43 2.0
2 Heath Miller PIT 61 47 77.0% 566 12 7 99 1.6
3 Kevin Boss NYG 15 9 60.0% 118 13.1 2 24 1.6
4 Leonard Pope ARI 34 23 67.6% 238 10.3 5 54 1.6
5 Ben Watson NE 49 36 73.5% 389 10.8 6 75 1.5
6 Donald Lee GB 63 48 76.2% 575 12 6 94 1.5
7 Antonio Gates SD 117 75 64.1% 984 13.1 9 152 1.3
8 Dallas Clark IND 99 58 58.6% 616 10.6 11 128 1.3
9 Tony Scheffler DEN 65 49 75.4% 549 11.2 5 85 1.3
10 Alex Smith TB 48 32 66.7% 385 12 3 57 1.2
11 Billy Miller NO 38 27 71.1% 328 12.1 2 45 1.2
12 Chris Cooley WAS 110 66 60.0% 786 11.9 8 127 1.2
13 Desmond Clark CHI 67 44 65.7% 545 12.4 4 79 1.2
14 Alge Crumpler ATL 65 42 64.6% 444 10.6 5 74 1.1
15 Ben Utecht IND 37 31 83.8% 364 11.7 1 42 1.1
16 Daniel Graham DEN 33 24 72.7% 246 10.3 2 37 1.1
17 Jason Witten DAL 141 96 68.1% 1145 11.9 7 157 1.1
18 Marcus Pollard SEA 35 28 80.0% 273 9.8 2 39 1.1
19 Robert Royal BUF 38 25 65.8% 248 9.9 3 43 1.1
20 Anthony Fasano DAL 21 14 66.7% 143 10.2 1 20 1.0
21 Bubba Franks GB 32 18 56.3% 132 7.3 3 31 1.0
22 Chris Baker NYJ 61 41 67.2% 411 10 3 59 1.0
23 Kellen Winslow CLE 148 82 55.4% 1106 13.5 5 141 1.0
24 Michael Gaines BUF 35 25 71.4% 215 8.6 2 34 1.0
25 Owen Daniels HOU 94 63 67.0% 768 12.2 3 95 1.0
26 Tony Gonzalez KC 154 99 64.3% 1172 11.8 5 147 1.0
27 Jeremy Shockey NYG 93 57 61.3% 619 10.9 3 80 0.9
28 Marcedes Lewis JAC 57 37 64.9% 391 10.6 2 51 0.9
29 Randy McMichael STL 67 39 58.2% 429 11 3 61 0.9
30 Todd Heap BAL 34 23 67.6% 239 10.4 1 30 0.9
31 Vernon Davis SF 85 52 61.2% 509 9.8 4 75 0.9
32 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN 43 27 62.8% 323 12 1 38 0.9
33 Zach Miller OAK 69 44 63.8% 444 10.1 3 62 0.9
34 David Martin MIA 50 34 68.0% 303 8.9 2 42 0.8
35 Eric Johnson NO 63 48 76.2% 378 7.9 2 50 0.8
36 Greg Olsen CHI 66 39 59.1% 391 10 2 51 0.8
37 Jeff King CAR 79 46 58.2% 406 8.8 2 53 0.7
38 Justin Peelle MIA 47 29 61.7% 228 7.9 2 35 0.7
39 L.J. Smith PHI 44 22 50.0% 236 10.7 1 30 0.7
40 Bo Scaife TEN 78 46 59.0% 421 9.2 1 48 0.6
41 Delanie Walker SF 42 21 50.0% 173 8.2 1 1 0.6
42 Quinn Sypniewski BAL 52 34 65.4% 246 7.2 1 31 0.6

The way to use this chart effectively is to look at how players scored given their opportunity (targets).

Enigma…

Jerramy Stevens Before you rush to draft Jerramy Stevens as your TE you may want to glance at his history. He is currently suspended at least until week three due to a drug possession and DUI charges. Having lived in the northwest where he played ball for Washington and then the Seahawks, he has been a constant headache. That said it doesn’t discount this table because he is enormously talented in many areas besides his brain.

Likely Risers…

Ben Utecht has moved to from Indy to Cincy. The man goes from Peyton to Carson and is clearly living a charmed life. He’s a talented TE and his new QB is no bum, so it’s reasonable to assume his FPTs/Tar of 2.0 remains somewhat intact. It’s just as reasonable to assume he will increase his targets drastically as he will not have Dallas Clark to contend with. A modest estimate of 50 targets * 2 FPTs/Tar would put him near 100 pts. This moves him right around the 10th best fantasy TE and a low-end starter.

Kevin Boss is Jeremy Shockey without the baggage. His terrific combine numbers have translated to the field so far. He was a Super Bowl darling and NY thinks highly enough of him to send Shockey packing his ‘baggage’. He also hails from my Alma Matter of Western Oregon University so clearly he’s a future star. When all is said and done he will be a top 15 TE with 45 targets * 2.2 FPTs/Tar at 80-100 pts. A top end TE#2 with upside to be a starter.

Anthony Fasano is a promising young TE that had the misfortune of playing behind Jason Witten. Parcells and Sporano saw enough of him in Dallas to take him with them to Miami so he will likely start and see a large increase in target opportunity. He’s a solid back up TE with starting potential.

"Randy McMichael has been spectacular this training camp, and I would expect him to have a very, very, very profound impact on our offense,” says Rams offensive coordinator Al Saunders. The Rams were decimated with injuries last year. He will replace Isaac Bruce as the 3rd option and I expect him to bounce back to the tune of 90 targets * .9 FPTs/Tar for 85+ points this season ranking him around TE# 10-15.

Leonard Pope ranks well on this list because he was often targeted in the red zone. With Leinart likely starting I expect him to use the TE safety valve much more than Warner did. Pope is young, missed 3 games last season, and slot receiver Bryant Johnson went to the Niners. He had 34 targets and I expect that to nearly double to 58 * 1.6 FPTs/Tar for 90+ fantasy points in ’08.

Vernon Davis plays in the Mike Martz system now. I don’t think that means a whole lot for the WR’s or even the QB’s but if you look at Martz’s history it is the slot receiver that grows substantially in his offense (AZ Hakim, Mike Furrey, and Sean McDonald). Vernon Davis will be that new break out slot player not Bruce, Battle, or Johnson.

Same as last Year…

Tony Scheffler is always on the sleeper list but is also continually on the IR list as well so proceed with caution. He could put it together because more balls will be targeting him since Javon Walker left town. Recent news suggests his foot that had pins inserted to stabilize it is hurting again. It sounds like the same troubles as last year. He’ll have about 60 targets again.

Dallas Clark is a true stud. He’s a top-seven TE and plays more slot WR than TE but with Marvin Harrison back and Anthony Gonzales growing by leaps and bounds Clark will struggle to get any more targets than his 99 from last year. They could even decline slightly to around 90. He will also struggle to match his 11 Td’s from 2007.

Greg Olsen is a good receiving talent, but the Bears like to run and he is not a blocking TE, so that limits his time on the field and his targets. His .8 FPTs/Tar is lower than you would expect. This is due to the Chicago offenses’ lack of scoring opportunity and poor QB play… not to mention his low 10 yds per catch. Even if his targeting improved from 66 to 85 he would score in the 70 point range (85* .8 FPTs/Tar) which is only TE#18-22 range. Don’t expect him to start for you even though you will find him on many sleeper lists.

Some Possible Decliners…

Tony Gonzalez was targeted more than any TE last year at 154. His production was inefficient at 1.0 FPTs/Tar. With the emergence of Dwayne Bowe and a healthy Larry Johnson back I think he will be less of the offensive focus. He is 32 and will start his decline this year. I think he slips from the top half of top ten TE’s to the bottom half like #6-#10.

Bo Scaife enjoyed a relatively large amount of targets (78) but was very inefficient at .6 FPTs/Tar. He plays with the same struggling Vince Young and had his duties have been taken by Alge Crumpler. This lack of efficiency leads me to temper my enthusiasm on Crumpler this year as well.

Jeff King is a solid TE but with the additions of Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett are vast improvements over the likes of Drew Carter and the revolving door experiments to play along side Steve Smith. His 75 Target and red zone opportunities will diminish and he is only a .6 FPTs/Tar efficiency.

OK, the prognosticator exercise is always fun but I’ll take off my swami hat for now. As I alluded to in my WR Efficiency article I mostly prefer PPR leagues where 250 lb fullbacks that get one 2-yd carry per game at the goal line don’t score equal to the dynamic yardage eaters that get them there. So below is a 2007 TE FPTs/Tar table for my peeps in PPR scoring.


 Fantasy Points / Target - Standard Scoring League
Rk Player Tm Tgt Rec Eff % Yds Yds/C TDs FPts Fpts/Tgt
1 Jerramy Stevens TB 21 18 85.7% 189 10.5 4 61 2.9
2 Heath Miller PIT 61 47 77.0% 566 12.0 7 146 2.4
3 Ben Watson NE 49 36 73.5% 389 10.8 6 112 2.3
4 Leonard Pope ARI 34 23 67.6% 238 10.3 5 77 2.3
5 Donald Lee GB 63 48 76.2% 575 12.0 6 142 2.2
6 Kevin Boss NYG 15 9 60.0% 118 13.1 2 33 2.2
7 Tony Scheffler DEN 65 49 75.4% 549 11.2 5 134 2.1
8 Ben Utecht IND 37 31 83.8% 364 11.7 1 73 2.0
9 Antonio Gates SD 117 75 64.1% 984 13.1 9 227 1.9
10 Marcus Pollard SEA 35 28 80.0% 273 9.8 2 67 1.9
11 Dallas Clark IND 99 58 58.6% 616 10.6 11 189 1.9
12 Billy Miller NO 38 27 71.1% 328 12.1 2 72 1.9
13 Alex Smith TB 48 32 66.7% 385 12.0 3 89 1.8
14 Daniel Graham DEN 33 24 72.7% 246 10.3 2 61 1.8
15 Desmond Clark CHI 67 44 65.7% 545 12.4 4 123 1.8
16 Brent Celek PHI 22 16 72.7% 178 11.1 1 40 1.8
17 Jason Witten DAL 141 96 68.1% 1145 11.9 7 253 1.8
18 Alge Crumpler ATL 65 42 64.6% 444 10.6 5 116 1.8
19 Robert Royal BUF 38 25 65.8% 248 9.9 3 68 1.8
20 Chris Cooley WAS 110 66 60.0% 786 11.9 8 193 1.8
21 Owen Daniels HOU 94 63 67.0% 768 12.2 3 158 1.7
22 Michael Gaines BUF 35 25 71.4% 215 8.6 2 59 1.7
23 Chris Baker NYJ 61 41 67.2% 411 10.0 3 100 1.6
24 Anthony Fasano DAL 21 14 66.7% 143 10.2 1 34 1.6
25 Tony Gonzalez KC 154 99 64.3% 1172 11.8 5 246 1.6
26 Todd Heap BAL 34 23 67.6% 239 10.4 1 53 1.6
27 Eric Johnson NO 63 48 76.2% 378 7.9 2 98 1.6
28 Marcedes Lewis JAC 57 37 64.9% 391 10.6 2 88 1.5
29 Zach Miller OAK 69 44 63.8% 444 10.1 3 106 1.5
30 Bubba Franks GB 32 18 56.3% 132 7.3 3 49 1.5
31 David Martin MIA 50 34 68.0% 303 8.9 2 76 1.5
32 Reggie Kelly CIN 27 20 74.1% 211 10.6 0 41 1.5
33 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN 43 27 62.8% 323 12.0 1 65 1.5
34 Will Heller SEA 26 13 50.0% 82 6.3 3 39 1.5
35 Sean McHugh DET 28 17 60.7% 252 14.8 0 42 1.5
36 Kellen Winslow CLE 148 82 55.4% 1106 13.5 5 223 1.5
37 Vernon Davis SF 85 52 61.2% 509 9.8 4 127 1.5
38 Randy McMichael STL 67 39 58.2% 429 11.0 3 100 1.5
39 Jeremy Shockey NYG 93 57 61.3% 619 10.9 3 138 1.5
40 George Wrighster JAC 24 17 70.8% 123 7.2 1 35 1.5
41 Greg Olsen CHI 66 39 59.1% 391 10.0 2 90 1.4
42 Justin Peelle MIA 47 29 61.7% 228 7.9 2 64 1.4
43 Jeff King CAR 79 46 58.2% 406 8.8 2 99 1.2
44 Quinn Sypniewski BAL 52 34 65.4% 246 7.2 1 65 1.2
45 Bo Scaife TEN 78 46 59.0% 421 9.2 1 94 1.2
46 L.J. Smith PHI 44 22 50.0% 236 10.7 1 52 1.2
47 Delanie Walker SF 42 21 50.0% 173 8.2 1 44 1.1

I’m having so much fun making charts I’ll include another for you. The key in drafting TE’s that is always a little murky is when to draft them so I’ve added a TE table here that lists some equivalent players at RB and WR based on the official FFtoday.com 2008 standard scoring projections. Happy hunting.

 Across The Board
Rk Tight Ends FPts Rk Wide Receivers Rk Running Backs
1 Kellen Winslow 143 21 Roddy White 31 Matt Forte
2 Jason Witten 135 22 Anquan Boldin 32 Julius Jones
3 Antonio Gates 133 23 Santana Moss 33 Chester Taylor
4 Tony Gonzalez 126 25 Hines Ward 35 Ahmad Bradshaw
5 Todd Heap 112 32 Isaac Bruce 36 Jerious Norwood
6 Chris Cooley 110 33 Bernard Berrian 38 Ricky Williams
7 Owen Daniels 101 37 Reggie Williams 39 DeAngelo Williams
8 Heath Miller 97 39 Reggie Brown 41 Felix Jones
9 Dallas Clark 91 42 Marvin Harrison 42 Ahman Green
10 Zach Miller 88 43 Patrick Crayton 43 Deuce McAllister




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