Can Mike Martz Turn 49er Water
in to Wine? 8/30/08
Nearly every fantasy breakdown you read of San Francisco this season
is going to talk about Mike Martz and his effect on the offensive
skill players. As winners of the Martz lottery, they’ll be
touted as sleeper picks with huge upside. After all, he did orchestrate
“the Greatest Show on Turf” right? He took a grocery
stock boy Kurt Warner and made him in to a Super Bowl champ! Who
could argue against that? Well, I’ll be your Huckleberry.
First, you have to be wary of the terms ‘sleeper’.
If by sleeper you mean the 49ers offense will go from the worst
to the 5th worst, ok I’ll buy that. But if the sleepers
you are looking for are some players who may actually help you
win a fantasy football game or season, then you may want to shop
elsewhere.
Let’s look at the fantasy points per game history of the
QB position with and without Martz.
| QBs: FPts/G |
| Player |
With Martz |
Without Martz |
| Kurt Warner |
18.5 |
16.1 |
| Marc Bulger |
21.6 |
16.7 |
| Jon Kitna |
18.9 |
15.9 |
|
Here are the individual
career stats I used for my calculations.
The numbers do show a jump in value per game. Even these numbers
are a little skewed for Bulger because in 2006 he averaged 19.7
FPTs/g but last year’s 13.7 injury decimated season significantly
dropped his average. That said QBs under Martz averaged 3.4 more
fantasy points per game. Such an increase would have taken 2007
49er starter Trent Dilfer from 36th (12.7 FPTs/G) to 21st (16.1
FPTs/G) among fantasy QBs and Alex Smith from the 50th (8.9 FPTs/G)
to the 38th (12.3 FPTs/G) best QB per game. According to the numbers,
the QBs under Martz will receive a production boost but not enough
to warrant a starting option. At best, assuming J.T. O’Sullivan
is as good a QB as Trent Dilfer is he could become a low-end backup
or QB3 on your roster. Unfortunately, even Martz will be unable
to make fantasy diamonds out of lumps of coal this year at QB.
Maybe you are more interested in this year’s breakout 49er
WRs instead. Does his system propel WRs to stardom? Well…yes
and no. Here’s the fantasy point per game look at WRs.
| WRs: FPts/G |
| Player |
With Martz |
Without Martz |
| Torry Holt |
11.6 |
10.6 |
| Roy Williams |
10.2 |
9.2 |
| Isaac Bruce |
9.8 |
9.4 |
| Az-Zahir Akim |
5.6 |
5.1 |
| Mike Furrey |
6.7 |
0 |
| Calvin Johnson |
6.6 |
0 |
| Shaun McDonald |
4.1 |
1.2 |
|
Here are the individual
career stats I used for my calculations.
It turns out WRs benefit the least from the Martz spread offense
system. The best players to look at in this comparison are Torry
Holt, Isaac Bruce, Az Hakim, and Roy Williams because they have
some established history with and without Martz as an offensive
coordinator and/or head coach. Those WRs averaged just under a one-point
increase (.975) in FPTs/G scored. The leading WR for the 49ers last
year was Arnaz battle who finished 52nd in FPTs/G (5.6). A one point
increase (6.6 FPTs/G) would lift him to 43rd which would only qualify
as a low end WR4 bye week replacement in deeper leagues. This does
not bode well for any of the 49er WRs chances to become helpful
fantasy sleepers.
The players that seem to have blossomed as sleepers under the
Martz system in the past were slot receivers Mike Furrey and Shaun
McDonald. Furrey was the 21st ranked WR per game in 2006 and McDonald
ranked 29th in 2007. The two players combined have only one year
played without Martz so comparisons are tough to make. What we
can say is that the slot receiver under a Mike Martz offense could
be WR3 worthy if your league starts three WRs. Arnaz Battle is
expected to claim that spot this year so there is a chance he
will be that kind of player this year. My concern here would be
TE Vernon Davis. He is known as an ultra athletic TE that can
run like a WR. According to Martz he will move Davis around and
use him in the same manner as a slot receiver. This will likely
diminish Battle from achieving Furrey-like numbers.
What about the RB position? What can we expect from Frank Gore?
Here are the RB fantasy numbers per game under Martz.
| RBs FPts/G |
| FPts/G RBs |
With Martz |
Without Martz |
| Marshall Faulk |
18.5 |
14.4 |
| Kevin Jones |
11.9 |
9.8 |
|
Here are the individual
career stats I used for my calculations.
Amazingly the best argument for a significant increase in a
Martz offense may be at the RB position! Here both Faulk and Jones
had their best years under Martz. The reason for increase is the
pass reception yardage and TDs. This is just in standard scoring
leagues not PPR where passing points even more significant. An
increase in his production by the 3.1 (FPTs/G) increase under
Martz would have moved Gore’s RB ranking from the 13th to
the 6th last season. Frank Gore is a solid RB who catches the
ball well out of the backfield so his 2008 prospects look very
bright.
Now that we have broken down each position keep in mind the environment
in St. Louis and Detroit was ripe for an explosive passing offense.
They were indoor turf stadiums where the weather and wind had
no effect. St. Louis and Detroit both had Hall of Fame and All-Pro
talent at WR and QB that have produced well either before or after
Martz.
San Francisco is a windy outdoor grass stadium and his offensive
weapons are a first time starter at QB in J.T O’Sullivan,
former #3 Cardinal WR Bryant Johnson, and an aging Isaac Bruce
all of whom are much less talented weapons than Martz had in Detroit
and St. Louis.
Gore may have a great year and Vernon Davis may catch a lot of
passes but don’t draft these 49er QBs and WRs expecting
anything more than 3rd string or waiver wire flyers or you’ll
be ‘Martzed’ right out of your league’s playoffs.
|
