Last Week’s Question: Do any RB/RB
drafters want to gloat?
Since we heard from zero-RB drafters in
Week 4, it seemed only fair to pass the microphone to RB/RB
drafters for Week 5.
The first reader to respond was Robert, who landed receiving stalwarts
Hopkins and Matthews in the third and fourth rounds of his draft
(just like I did). In the first two rounds, however, he managed
to nab two great RBs: Charles and Forte. He explains:
My plan was to go with a WR in the second, but
a ton of WR’s were already gone by 2.10. Rather than getting
caught up in the run or brainlessly sticking to a strategy, I got
ridiculous value with Forte. I still have no idea why Brandon Marshall
was around at the end of round 8, but these 5 guys have allowed
me to go 3-0 and lead our league in points scored.
Robert’s response presaged what I would hear from other RB/RB
drafters. Although many of the zero-RB responses in last week’s
column came from readers who made a conscious choice before their
drafts to use a zero-RB strategy, the RB/RB drafters were mostly
surprised that they ended up taking RBs in the first two rounds.
Over and over, RB/RB drafters stressed the importance of responding
dynamically to the draft—and not deciding in advance which
positions to stress in the early rounds.
I expected to hear from a ton of AP owners, but I guess most of
them ended up taking receivers in round 2 or not feeling boastful.
Noah was the only AP drafter who assessed his own psychology during
the draft:
I drafted AP and Gore. . . . I am in first place,
undefeated, and lead the league in scoring. We give a money bonus
for high score each week, and I have won it twice already.
To be honest though, I went WR/WR in the league I commish. Took
Julio and AJ with the 9th pick. 12 team. I am 2-1, in second place,
and lead the league in scoring.
I let the draft come to me and try to stay fluid. I do well drafting
either way. It's all in how you construct your team and manage it
to me. If I pick at the top I usually go RB. Towards the end WR.
I try to go with the best value and the least amount of risk with
my first two picks. That's just the way it seems to play out when
I'm in those slots. Either way works for me. I always do well, have
a 74% win percentage, and never fail to win money in 6 years. It's
not the game; it's the player!
Although I can’t boast of having won money in every fantasy
contest I ever participated in, my mindset largely corresponds with
Noah’s. In the FFToday Staff League, for example, where I
had the second overall pick, I went RB (E. Lacy), but in my primary
league, with the 11th pick out of twelve, I ended up taking WRs
with my first four picks because I saw no value at the RB position
in any of the early rounds.
Part of “letting the draft come to you” involves understanding
the tendencies of your fellow drafters. Just look at how the rest
of Scott’s team turned out after he went Lacy/Forte in rounds
1 and 2:
1. Lacy
2. Forte
3. Cobb
4. Hopkins
5. Morris
6. Greg Olsen
7. Jarvis Landry
8. Matt Ryan
9. Chris Ivory
10. Eric Decker
11. Arian Foster
12. Steve Smith Sr
13. Tevin Coleman
Scott’s draft happened in mid-August, when Cobb was expected
to play second fiddle to Jordy Nelson and the timetable for Foster’s
return was uncertain. Not only did both of those situations work
out advantageously for him, but he was able to strengthen his team
even further with a very nice trade:
After week 1, I traded Lacy and Landry for Antonio
Brown and Joseph Randle. My team is doing quite well now. After
three weeks, I’m the only team that has crossed the 500-point
threshold and I’m sitting at 3-0 after setting a new league
scoring record of 209.7. The second place team is at 445 points,
and I suppose you could say she went Zero-RB; her first two picks
were Gronk and Demaryius Thomas. We’re the only teams in the
league who are 3-0.
Who wouldn’t deal Lacy for Brown if they had Forte and Foster
to fall back on? And in case the Forte/Foster tandem isn’t
scary enough, Scott also ended up with Brown/Hopkins at WR. Scott’s
team is a great example of what can be achieved by grabbing value
in every round of a draft (regardless of your team’s most
pressing needs) and trading your way to a stud-filled roster. (Of
course, it’s also an example of the value of playing with
folks who allow the Hopkinses of the NFL to slide into the fourth
round).
One of the most surprising things about the feedback I received
concerning the RB/RB approach was that so many of the folks who
wrote in to endorse it reported participation in multiple leagues
and mentioned that it worked well for them only in particular circumstances.
We already saw this point touched on by Noah, but Mark amplified
it:
I'm not really looking to gloat, as the season
is still young, but I did have a data point that seemed interesting.
I'm in 5 redraft leagues this year, and my strategy is generally
to build myself a big board based on some of my own analysis (and
referencing Doug Orth's to not stray too far) and just take "best
available" for the first 10 rounds or so. This year I was definitely
favoring the top 4 WRs early, although I would not pass up a top
RB at the right spot. 4 of the 5 drafts were relatively balanced
through the first 5 or 6 rounds, but in a 12-team standard league
I ended up going RB/RB/RB and am currently in 1st place (2nd total
points) at 4-0. By coincidence of just taking "best available",
I unintentionally ended up with 4 players who wouldn't even be on
the field in week 1. This was a somewhat troubling realization once
the draft was over, and I was obviously ecstatic when Brady ended
up being cleared. The first few weeks went favorably however, and
now that my team is coming up to full speed things are starting
to look good. Obviously the team has flaws at WR since the first
2 I drafted have so far been busts (have since picked up Moncrief
and Hurns off the wire) and will likely need to secure a trade at
some point with one of my backs not named Bell. Points leader is
sitting at 2-2 and was an autodrafter going RB/WR/RB/WR. Second
place team ended up going RB/RB/WR/QB.
Here is the team I drafted from the 4 spot: 1) L. Bell, 2) F. Gore,
3) M. Ingram, 4) D. Adams, 5) T. Kelce, 6) T. Brady, 7) A. Foster,
8 ) N. Agholor, 9) M. Bryant, 10) M. Wheaton, 11) M. Mariota, 12)
B. Quick, 13) K. Davis, 14) Miami Defense, 15) B. McManus
Nice work, Mark. That’s a solid team along with a clear
explanation of the value of going RB/RB/RB.
In a few cases, the gloating I requested was done by proxy. Although
Vic used a zero-RB approach and is undefeated and in first place
in his league, he reports having only a 3-point lead on the other
undefeated owner in his league, who went RB/RB with Bell and Charles.
(I have to assume the zero-RB approach was popular in that league
if Charles was available in round 2.)
Since I argued in last week’s column that people love to
complain even more than they love bragging, I guess I owe Chad
an apology. I thought that even though I asked strictly for gloating
from successful RB/RB drafters, I would still end up getting an
earful from drafters who were dissatisfied by their RB/RB approach.
That didn’t happen.
But even though I heard from plenty of RB/RB drafters who were
delighted with the results of their draft, almost everyone who
bothered to answer the question about the team in second place
in their league said that it had taken a different approach (either
zero-RB or mixed). If you had a good RB/RB draft in your league,
odds are that no one else who went RB/RB enjoyed your success.
For what it’s worth, the only two undefeated teams in the
FFToday
Staff league took a mixed approach. Mike Krueger went RB/WR
(C.J. Anderson/A.J. Green) with the twelfth and thirteenth picks;
and Fumbleweed went RB/QB (Le’Veon Bell/Aaron Rodgers) with
the fourth and twenty-first picks. Since no one would argue that
C.J. Anderson has been critical to Krueger’s success, we’re
right back to Noah’s claim that it’s not the game;
it’s the player.
My thanks to everyone who took the time to write in. If people
in multiple leagues discern a persistent pattern of zero-RB drafters
outperforming RB/RB drafters (or vice versa), I hope to hear from
them closer to the end of the season—and perhaps to share
some of their thoughts and data.
For now, all I can say is some zero-RB teams are kicking booty—and
so are some RB/RB teams.
This Week’s Question: Has the general
yippishness of kickers affected your league?
Since my earlier question about kickers in
Week 2 landed with a resounding thud after sailing left of
the uprights, I want to leave this question open for the next
few weeks . . . because when it comes to kickers in 2015, there
is definitely a new trend afoot (pun, unfortunately, intended).
When we saw kickers miss an unprecedented number of PATs in Week
1 (after the distance was changed to 33 yards), the fantasy world
simply shrugged and said, “So be it.”
But things have gotten worse.
Now kickers are starting to miss field goals at an alarming rate
(14 out of 71 in Week 4). After Josh Scobee missed two field goals
vs. Baltimore, his owners could only sit by as Mike Tomlin justifiably
decided not to trust him at the end of the game.
Kyle Brindza also missed two FGs (including one from less than
30 yards). There were additional misses by Dan Carpenter, Mason
Crosby, Nick Folk, and Blair Walsh (all from less than 50 yards).
And try not to forget Zach Hocker’s missed FG at the end
of regulation in the Cowboys-Saints game (which is easy to forget
because even though the Saints should have won on a chip shot
FG without going to overtime, they ended up winning nevertheless).
Why are historically reliable kickers suddenly missing FGs that
used to be automatic for them?
A number of experts (including retired kicker Jay Feely) are
blaming the new PAT rule for FG failures. According to Feely,
back when a PAT was considered a “gimme,” kickers
were able to get into their groove without having to overcome
a lot of stress. As Feely put it:
Extra points used to be in-game practice.
You didn’t have to worry about the result (it was a given)
which allowed you to focus on your form and get grooved in during
the game. Somewhat of a confidence builder. Like throwing a couple
screens early for a QB. Now, the pressure is bigger for [extra
points] than even [field goals] because zero room for error (100%
success is demanded). The pressure intensifies and it impacts
FG performance as well.
The pressure is already intense enough that we’ve seen Scobee
and Brindza fired (and heard a lot of chatter about how Jacksonville’s
Myers and New Orleans’ Hocker may not be far behind). With
this kind of turnover, the kicker carousel is about to turn into
a bloody crime scene.
There will be fantasy fallout from this development. Inattentive
owners will soon be surprised to learn that the kicker they thought
was active this week is actually on a bye because he was shipped
off to a new team in the last forty-eight hours. The old strategy
of taking any kicker on a high-powered offense is going to result
in negative points for lots of owners.
Survivor Pool Picks - Week 5 (Courtesy
of Matthew Schiff)
Trap Game: Cleveland at Baltimore
The members of Baltimore’s wide receiving corps are collectively
auditioning as extras on The Walking Dead. Steve Smith,
Sr. is out with a sore back and is showing every bit of his “senior”
status. Third year wide out Michael Campanaro and rookie Breshad
Perriman are also expected to be out this week, which is why Kamar
Aiken is suddenly a hot property on the waiver wire. But can Joe
Flacco really pull off a win by relying on the backups of backups?
A lot of folks will take a quick look at the Browns’ 1-3
record and assume that Flacco will succeed, but I’m not
so sure, as the Browns have been anything but pushovers so far
this season. Pick this game only if you are desperate, and ignore
the line that Vegas has set.
#3: Kansas City over Chicago (3-1, Cin,
Phi, AZ, ATL)
Kansas City’s Alex Smith is no world-beater, but he can
manage a game and has Jamaal Charles to take the pressure off
him. He also has a new receiver (Jeremy Maclin) who is capable
of stretching the field the way Dwayne Bowe used to. Jay Cutler
may have been a world-beater when he had both Brandon Marshall
and Alshon Jeffery at his disposal, but the Chicago offense has
sputtered since Marshall was shipped off to the Jets and Jeffery
fell into an Isaac Bruce-like pit of hamstring-related despair.
Maybe the Bears will bounce back with Jeffery (supposedly) on
the mend and Cutler back under center, but Chicago frankly looks
like a team that is only one major injury away from packing it
in for the rest of the season. No game is a true lock in any given
week, but it will be challenging to find a better time to use
the Chiefs in your survivor pool.
#2: NY Giants over San Francisco (3-1 GB,
Balt, NE, SEA)
The Giants and 49ers are two teams trying to find their identities
and clearly going in opposite directions this season. With Jim
Harbaugh back coaching college football and a roster made up of
players with an average of two years of NFL experience, San Francisco
finds itself in unfamiliar territory in a division with three
teams that all have playoff potential. This week, the Niners won’t
get a break against a Giants team that has regained some of its
defensive swagger under the leadership of Steve Spagnolo. While
Jason Pierre-Paul may not be in the lineup, Uani Unga, Landon
Collins and fellow rookie Owamagbe Odighizuwa are making their
presence felt in a scheme ideally suited to take advantage of
the athleticism that these players bring. Add to the upstart defense
an offense that features second-year phenom Odell Beckham along
with Super Bowl-proven game manager Eli Manning, and the Giants
should have what it takes to win at home. While this will hardly
be a reminder of those great games between Joe Montana and Phil
Simms during their respective teams’ dominance in the ‘80s,
it should be entertaining enough to keep America interested. Take
the home team as Odell cobbles together a new highlight reel.
#1: Atlanta over Washington (2-2 NE, Mia,
SEA, AZ)
The Atlanta Falcons sit atop the NFC South with a 4-0 record under
the tutelage of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, the former
head coach of the Redskin team they face this week. Coach Shanahan
finally has the quarterback in Matt Ryan that he was missing in
Washington, a true number one wide receiver in Julio Jones, and
a gem of a running back in Devonta Freeman. Freeman has scored
three rushing touchdowns in each of the last two games and claimed
sole possession of the top running back spot even when Tevin Coleman
returns to the lineup after his injury. Look for the Falcons to
go 4-0 against NFC East teams as they mix it up against a Washington
team that will be outmatched by on-the-field talent and outcoached
by their former leader.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.
