Last Week’s Question: Is the gap between good and bad fantasy owners widening or narrowing?

Both luck and skill have always been important in fantasy football, but in my column for Week 14, I asked whether the ubiquity of relevant information has made it harder or easier for talented fantasy owners to distinguish themselves from their peers.

The overwhelming majority of those who wrote in contended that the gap between good and bad owners is shrinking as a direct consequence of easy access to the most important data. As Matt explained via email, “I have to say the gap has narrowed considerably with everyone able to get similar information in real time.” A reader named Zipowitz expanded on this idea with a comment posted directly to the column:

[Y]ears ago, at the draft, the eventual loser would show up with his dated magazine he bought on the way to the draft. Nowadays, you can get up-to-date rankings and depth charts at any site at any moment. In addition, the site we use for our "live draft" actually shows rankings . . . so now the uneducated can just let the computer tell them who to pick. It certainly has taken the edge away from the good [owners]. My team managed to win 7 years in a row because we studied and prepared for the draft, and now the others are able to catch up strictly by advancements in websites.

Some readers, such as Joe, took the opposite point of view:

I believe that the glut of FF information out there on NFL players is overwhelming and the content quality is underwhelming. Good owners can still gain a degree of separation by filtering out the trash and sticking with one or two reliable and trusted sources. Most FF writers offer inconsistent, non-quantifiable and highly subjective opinions. They are best left ignored. I have two sources of information and read them religiously. Yes, FFToday is one. I will admit I still have a third source for drafting rookies, but it is an old school print magazine that is pretty good and is consistent with the analysis that Doug Orth puts into his preseason columns.

Thanks for the endorsement, Joe! I know that the information on FFToday helps me in every league in which I don’t have to play against Mike Krueger, Doug Orth, and the other staff experts who provide this community with their fantastic insights.

Although most of the responses I received followed the logic of Matt and Zipowitz, there was a strong second place finish for perspectives such as Joe’s. However, I want to call attention to a different point of view that came across in a handful of email responses and posted comments. According to this perspective, the extent to which owners must be skillful or lucky to win in a league may be affected by the instantaneous dissemination of NFL-related data, but it also has a great deal to do with that league’s particular rules. The first comment posted to last week’s column (by DR) makes this point with sophisticated and compelling logic:

I do not think the flow of information has as much to do with the level of good or bad fantasy management as most would think. . . . There have always been . . . people who are capable of processing information either quicker or simply better than others. This is not the main determining factor in a successful fantasy manager. Everyone knows [that if] Le'Veon Bell is put on IR, DeAngelo Williams is a must-add, and it doesn't take an A+ manager to get that. The subtleties of strong fantasy management go much deeper. A good fantasy manager was able to secure DeAngelo off the waiver wire because they had waiver priority by not blowing it on their streaming defense option two weeks prior or jumping the gun on a one-week wonder. Fantasy management is a season-long strategy [that involves not only familiarizing yourself with] the wealth of information available, but more importantly [exploiting] the settings and rules of your specific league [and] the habits and tendencies of [your] opponents. Knowing your league and league-mates is key and [arguably] more important than spending hours on the web reading as many fantasy advice and information columns as possible.

Well said, DR. And even if you were in the minority, you weren’t completely alone. I’m grateful to everyone who responded to the question. I recommend that curious readers review the comments posted to last week’s column, since they reflect a surprisingly wide range of thoughtful opinions.

This Week’s Question: Do you have a kicker horror story to share?

Way back in Week 6, I indicated that I would return to the subject of nightmare scenarios involving kickers at the end of the regular season.

Little did I know that I would have my own story to share. In my primary fantasy league (in which I have fortunately just advanced to the semifinal round of the playoffs), we have tight rosters of 14 players, which makes it impossible for me to justify carrying two kickers. The kicker I started the season with (Chandler Catanzaro) had his bye in Week 9, so I had to cut him to make room for a replacement.

Since I’m a closet Raider fan, the choice wasn’t hard. Sebastian Janikowski was available; the Raider offense was looking fairly sharp at that time (as I had predicted in a preseason column); and Janikowski’s bye week was behind him. On the premise that kickers are mostly a crap shoot anyway, I rolled the dice on Janikowski.

In Week 10, I could have cut Janikowski to get Catanzaro back (since he was still just sitting on waivers), but I opted not to. I’m always looking for any excuse to root for the Raiders, and having Janikowski on my team gave me just such an excuse. “Who knows?” I asked myself. “It might work out.”

What I should have said was, “Don’t be a sentimental fool. You know that rosters get locked in this league before the playoffs start, and if the wheels fall off the Raider bandwagon, you’ll be stuck with a worthless kicker.”

I won my Week 13 playoff game 148-117 thanks to Carson Palmer and Odell Beckham Jr.—and no thanks to Janikowski, who contributed a grand total of zero points with 2 PATs, 1 missed field goal, and 1 missed PAT.

I squeaked past my Week 14 playoff opponent 124-112 thanks again to Palmer and Beckham—and no thanks (again) to Janikowski, who (again) contributed a grand total of zero points with 1 PAT and 1 missed field goal.

I want to be excited about the semifinals, but all I can feel is dread. I don’t think anyone can expect to get through the fantasy playoffs with a kicker whose weekly contribution suggests that he is on IR.

To revisit the point made by Jay Feely (quoted in my Week 6 column), the fact that PATs are no longer automatic for kickers seems likely to undermine their confidence concerning field goals. The PAT used to be a sort of in-game warm-up, but these days every PAT can become an open wound susceptible to an infection known as the yips. I’ve been saving some kicker nightmare stories for months now, but I hope to collect a few more for next week’s column. Please email me your story (or post it in the comment section below).

Survivor Pool Picks - Week 15 (Courtesy of Matthew Schiff)

#3: Pittsburgh over Denver (6-8, Cin, Phi, AZ, ATL, KC, SEA, SD, NE, DEN, GB, NYJ, CAR, Wash, CLE):

The Broncos enter this game as the top defense in yards allowed per game, but they haven’t faced the likes of Ben Rothlisberger and his stable of receivers. (Question: Is ‘stable’ the right word because the Pittsburgh WRs are fast like horses or because they are so reliable? Answer: Yes!) Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler is getting extended playing time as Peyton Manning continues to heal, but don’t blame Denver’s lack of offense on this newcomer. He has made the throws to his receivers, but last week alone, Demaryius Thomas and crew dropped more than three critical passes in the fourth quarter to let down the rookie. Worse yet, even if the Bronco receivers can get back on the same page as Osweiler, Denver is a different team away from home. So take the Steelers at home. Even though they face an impressive opponent, Pittsburgh is probably one of few reasonably safe bets left to you at this point in the season.

#2: Kansas City over Baltimore (10-4, GB, Balt, NE, SEA, NYG, MIN, AZ, STL, ATL, PHL, Jax, Cin, CHI, TB)

If you are one of the few who hasn’t used Kansas City yet, the oddsmakers say that you should take them. I think that they are wrong against the spread, but the Chiefs should have enough to squeak past Baltimore on the road. The bruised and battered Ravens offense doesn’t scare many defenses—and especially not a Kansas City defense that is now in the top 5 in points allowed this season (after getting off to a rough start). This game will hardly be a barn burner, but the Chiefs are quietly averaging 25 points per game. If Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, and Steve Smith were playing this week, I’d have second thoughts. But they aren’t, so I don’t—and you shouldn’t either.

#1: Jacksonville over Atlanta (8-6 NE, Mia, SEA, AZ, ATL, GB, STL, KC, NO, Cin, CAR, NYG, PIT, BUF)

“Wait, wait, wait,” you object. “Don’t you mean Atlanta over Jacksonville?” No. You read that right. A few weeks ago I mentioned that the Jaguars were in a position to make playoffs. Well, Blake Bortles and company have kept the dream alive and have been complemented by anopportunistic defense that scored two touchdowns in the game versus Indianapolis. After an impressive 5-0 start, the Falcons have dropped 7 of their last 8 and are now on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Despite incredible efforts this season by Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones, the Falcons are already wondering about what could have been. Not so for the Jags. Even without T.J. Yeldon (knee), the Jags will generate enough offense between Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas to keep the Atlanta defense as discombobulated as it has looked in recent weeks. Take the Jags at home in spite of the fact that their record is worse than that of their opponents. This team is on a roll and worth betting your season on. If nothing else, you can always tell your friends how you lost it all on a Cinderella story . . .