The Raiders issues run deep but Amari Cooper
is at the heart of the turnaround in... Oakland?
Impossibly, Kenny Stabler never made it into the Hall of Fame. Even
more impossibly, he died at the age of 69. No one thought he would
live forever, but I think we all expected him to outlast his old
coach, John Madden, who, in addition to being ten years older than
Stabler, never looked especially healthy standing next to the QB.
One upside to Madden having survived Stabler is that we were treated
to the
coach’s thoughts on the passing of the star quarterback.
You tell ‘em what’s what, Coach.
As for what the Snake meant to me, it’s hard to explain. You
only get one chance to be a little kid; you only get one chance
to understand the rules of football for the first time; and you
don’t get to choose when that one chance will happen. The
timing either works out for you or it doesn’t. It worked out
for me because that one chance came way back in the mid-1970s, when
the football games that made me drop my jaw in wonder seemed always
to feature Stabler’s leadership of the Raiders.
As a Texan, my favorite team was supposed to be the Cowboys, but
I couldn’t bring myself to meet that expectation. I considered
Stabler, Cliff Branch, Fred Biletnikoff, and Dave Casper my heroes—and
the Raiders a heroic organization. I loved the Raiders so much that
I remained loyal to them long after they stopped providing the thrills
that had drawn me to them in the first place. I stayed with them
as Al Davis’ insanity went from being quirky to consuming
the entire team—to the point that they sometimes appeared
to be playing games not on an actual field but inside the tortured,
ego-drenched consciousness of their owner.
They became painful to watch, but my loyalty was such that I kept
watching.
I watched as the team’s “commitment to excellence”
became a “commitment to excrements” (i.e. players, coaches,
and front office workers who were mostly pieces of s**t). Predictably,
I turned to fantasy football for solace. I knew that the Raiders
had no real chance in reality, so I tried to put a token Raider
or two on my fantasy teams to let those players flirt with the possibility
of success. Unfortunately, with the exception of kicker Sebastian
Janikowski, those token players mostly stayed on my bench.
Oakland has become notorious for making fantasy owners feel once
bitten, twice shy about skill players who seem poised for success.
Year in and year out, these promising players have failed to deliver
because of 1) injury; 2) an appalling surrounding cast; or 3) being
grossly overrated. In recent memory, think of guys like RB Darren
McFadden and WR Rod
Streater. But the pattern stretches back more than a decade
to the Callahan collapse in 2003. The highlight of the blooper reel
was probably the decision to burn a top draft choice on QB JaMarcus
Russell in 2007 (arguably the biggest whiff in draft history). The
team stinks so horribly that when the Raiders invite high-profile
free agents to visit their facility for talks, the free agents decline.
“No thanks. I don’t want your money, no matter how much you’re offering.
And I don’t even want to use you as a bargaining chip with other
teams because I can’t visit your stadium without getting covered
in excrement.”
There’s a lot of excitement in Raider Nation right now surrounding
the hiring of Jack Del Rio and some tantalizing draft choices. But
should that excitement lead to expectations of black and silver
viability in fantasy circles?
In 2014, QB Derek Carr gave Raider fans reason to think that he
might be something special one day, but he wasn’t special
from a fantasy standpoint. He finished the season with only 348
completions for 3270 yards in the passing game (800 yards behind
Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, who was a low-end starter or top-end
backup in 2014, but not a fantasy star by any means). No one mistakes
Carr for a rushing QB, as he scrambled for only 87 yards (and 0
TDs) all season. (To put that lack of rushing productivity in perspective,
you need only jaunt across the bay to find a QB who rushed for 151
yards in a single game—Colin Kaepernick in Week 16, vs. San
Diego).
To his credit, Carr was more productive than most people would have
expected given that his backfield did so little to relieve pressure
from him. Latavius Murray had only one breakout game. His 112 yards
against KC in Week 12 included a 90-yard TD. His other efforts were
marginal from a fantasy standpoint, as were all 16 performances
by Run-DMC. Anyone who paid a high price for McFadden was disappointed
by his grand total of 534 rushing yards in 2014. Then again, nobody
paid a high price for him because FFers generally understand that
Raiders just don’t work out.
Every year, people say the Raiders have to get better because they
can’t get any worse. And yet somehow, every year, they find
a way to sink to new lows.
This year, the people who refuse to drink the Raider Kool-aid point
to several reasons why the Raiders won’t be any better in
2015 than they have been in previous years: 1) the culture of losing
and not caring about it and merrily cashing your paycheck has become
entrenched in Oakland, as
Rich Gannon points out; 2) a team that couldn’t run the
ball effectively with Murray and McFadden is unlikely to run it
much better with Murray and Trent Richardson; 3) Jack Del Rio’s
offensive coordinator, Bill Musgrave, may have been a capable QB
coach in Philadelphia last year, but his track record as an OC is
spotty; and 4) the Raiders are on the verge of leaving Oakland without
having yet determined where they will land in 2016.
In other words, the team remains a total mess.
But what if it’s a mess that Del Rio can clean up? Let’s
address the problems one by one.
1) Addressing the Culture of Apathy
Before Jimmy Johnson took over from Tom Landry in Dallas, the Cowboys
(like the current Raiders) had spiraled from an era of greatness
into a lazy culture of easy-going losers. It took a coach who knew
how to relate to players to get things turned around. Del Rio is
a players’ coach who has already enjoyed some success. It
took him three years to get Jacksonville to the playoffs, but his
progress was steady, demonstrable, and encouraging for the fan base.
Considering the difficulty Oakland has faced in convincing coaching
candidates to take this job seriously, Del Rio is about as promising
a head coach as anyone could have expected the organization to land.
2) Trent Richardson Is a Red Herring
If the Raiders’ rushing attack improves this season, it probably
won’t be because of the acquisition of Trent
Richardson. It will be because Murray has shaken off the concussion
problems of 2014 and because Roy Helu, Jr. will contribute on passing
downs. More than anything, however, improvement on the ground will
come from Oakland’s development of a passing attack that other
teams will have to respect. The most promising thing about Carr’s
lackluster numbers in 2014 was that he had almost nothing to work
with. In 2015, the Raiders have added a sensational rookie wideout
in Amari
Cooper and a complementary WR in Michael
Crabtree. I understand why FFers may be skittish about Crabtree,
who didn’t justify consistent starts in 2014. Even in his
best campaign (the 2012 season), Crabtree was a feast-or-famine
wideout with the sort of statistical output that owners now associate
with DeSean Jackson. However, I’m not trying to argue that
Crabtree is going to achieve consistency in Oakland; I’m arguing
that he’s part of a potent wide receiver corps that will include
two NFL-proven commodities (himself and Streater) and one very exciting
rookie (Cooper). With such dynamic weapons on the edges of the offense,
the line of scrimmage will become softer for Murray in 2015 than
it was in 2014.
3) Musgrave’s Offense Ranked 30th
the Last Time He Served as Del Rio’s OC
Musgrave has been an offensive coordinator twice, and he had elite
running backs at his disposal on both occasions (Fred Taylor in
Jacksonville in 2003-4 and Adrian
Peterson in Minnesota from 2011-3). He most recently served
as quarterback coach for the Eagles, where the magic he worked with
Mark
Sanchez was predicated on the stunning versatility of LeSean
McCoy. Since Murray has yet to be mistaken by anyone for Taylor,
Peterson, or McCoy, the concerns about whether Musgrave can make
the Oakland offense hum are legitimate, especially since his offense
in Jacksonville, even with Taylor as a formidable cog in the machine,
was one of the worst in the league.
But do you think you could really work in Chip Kelly’s offense
for a year and observe its success firsthand without being affected
by it? Musgrave says that he intends to bring some of that fast-paced
energy to the Raiders and especially to the play of their quarterback—and
if he could generate that excitement in Sanchez (who had previously
looked like a consummate dud with the Jets), why shouldn’t
he expect similar (or better) results in Carr?
4) The Future of the Raiders Is Up in
the Air
Of all the problems the Raiders face, fans lament that the most
significant by far is their uncertain future. The city of Oakland
doesn’t seem to be interested in keeping them around, and
it’s hard to blame the local population. Why build a new stadium
for a team that plays unwatchable football?
But let’s think back to what happened to the Houston Oilers
as they had to simultaneously undergo a team rebuilding project
and a relocation.
In 1994, the Oilers fired Jack Pardee mid-season because things
appeared to be spiraling out of control.
Twenty years later, the Raiders fired Dennis Allen mid-season because
things appeared to be spiraling out of control.
In 1995, the Oilers named Jeff Fisher (a former defensive player
who had coached under the legendary Buddy Ryan) as the head coach.
(Fisher also served as interim coach after Pardee’s firing
in 2014, but his first full season as a head coach began in 1995.)
Twenty years later, the Raiders named Jack Del Rio (a former defensive
player who had coached under the legendary Mike Ditka) as their
head coach. Maybe there’s something about defensive players-turned-coaches
that suits them to the siege mentality needed to navigate the rebuilding
process.
In 1995, with the third overall pick in the NFL draft, Houston’s
first selection under Fisher was Steve McNair; that pick turned
out to be a home run.
Twenty years later, with the fourth overall pick in the NFL draft,
Oakland’s first selection under Del Rio was Amari Cooper;
that pick seems likely to be a home run.
Shortly after Fisher took over in Houston, his team became nomadic.
They moved to Tennessee, but started playing games in Memphis before
settling in Nashville.
Shortly after Del Rio takes over in Oakland, the team is likely
to move somewhere else, but that somewhere is a gigantic question
mark. Maybe they will return to L.A., but since the Rams also want
to go back to their former home in California, some folks (despite
denials from Raider officials, including Mark Davis) think that
Oakland could end up taking the stadium package that St. Louis is
currently offering to the Rams. Additionally, there is speculation
that the Raiders could relocate to San Antonio. Fans of that plan
are quick to point out that moving to Texas would instantly make
the Raiders more competitive for talent in financial terms, as professional
athletes in Texas escape all sorts of tax burdens imposed on their
peers in California.
Wherever the Raiders end up, their geographical future is uncertain,
and their detractors point to this uncertainty as arguably the most
damning thing about the team.
Only it isn’t.
Fisher didn’t rebuild the Oilers overnight. Even after acquiring
McNair (1995) and Eddie George (1996), he had to put a lot of other
pieces in place before the rebranded Titans would make it to a Super
Bowl in 1999 (which they lost to the Rams).
One of the secrets of Fisher’s success was that the team owner
could afford to be patient with him through a major rebuilding project
BECAUSE the Oilers-turned-Titans moved around so much in the years
following his appointment as head coach. Fans in Houston who thought
the addition of Eddie George to a 7-9 team should have yielded better
results than an 8-8 record didn’t get a chance to register
their disappointment because the team was suddenly off to Tennessee.
Del Rio is poised to do something very similar. If anything, the
uncertainty of the Raiders’ future works to his advantage
(because sometimes the most important thing for rebuilding a team
is coaching continuity, which is very hard to come by in a league
as impatient as the NFL).
Maybe this is all just wishful thinking, but I expect the Raiders
to improve dramatically over the next four or five years, and I
think Del Rio will get a longer-than-usual chance at improvement
because (and not in spite of) the impending move.
Of course, even if I’m right about that, it doesn’t follow that
FFers should set their sights on any Raiders in 2015. Nevertheless,
I confess that I will be eyeing Cooper hard in my drafts. The class
of 2014 receivers taught us that it’s more than possible for rookie
wide receivers to have a high impact in fantasy terms. We’re all
still rubbing our eyes in disbelief at the stats compiled by Odell
Beckham Jr.—not to mention the highlight reel.
Raider players have been toxic in fantasy circles for so long that
it’s easy to see why FFers will be reluctant to pull the trigger
on Cooper. “It’s not about him,” they’ll
say, “it’s about his excremental team.”
But that kind of dismissal makes no sense. After all, the Giants
were pretty horrible in 2014—downright embarrassing in some
weeks. When teams fall behind early, they have to abandon the running
game and turn to the air, and Beckham proved that he could rise
to that challenge. Why shouldn’t Cooper do something similar?
I’ll need to see something from Oakland in 2015 before I’ll
consider gambling on Carr, Crabtree, Streater, Helu, or even the
widely hyped Murray, but for the first time in nearly a decade,
I am targeting a particular skill player in Oakland.
Who knows? If Del Rio and Musgrave fail to deliver on Cooper’s
talent, maybe the ghost of Kenny Stabler will pitch in.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.
