6/22/06
It is June of 2006, which means that Bill Belichick has three months
to respond to this challenge that I am putting into print before
the beginning of the 2006 NFL season. But before we get to the challenge
itself, I’ll take a moment to introduce you to the two potential
participants.
In the left corner, wearing what appears to be a set of brass knuckles
(though it is in fact a collection of Super Bowl rings), and weighing
in at something a good deal less than that baggy sweatshirt would
lead the casual onlooker to guess, is Bill Belichick. He is widely
regarded as a defensive genius, but the more attentive football
fan regards him as a master of personnel management and deployment.
He is rumored by some to have been the secret of Bill Parcells’
success and known by all to be a success in his own right. In this
analyst’s opinion, he is more important than any player (even
the still underappreciated Tom Brady) to the staying power of the
Patriot franchise—and would be the one human being around
which the owner of the next NFL expansion team could most realistically
hope to build a competitive team.
And in the right corner, wearing the robe that he has paid for with
his earnings from writing about fantasy football, the one emblazoned
with his own cryptic Holiday Inn slogan, is Mike Davis. Weighing
in at just under 180 pounds, much of which is apparently undigested
ego or stupidity, Davis is widely known in the circles of sports
journalism as “Never Heard of Him” or “That Fantasy
Hack.” He is often consulted about final lineup decisions
by fantasy football enthusiasts, but for reasons that remain unclear,
these strangers rarely consult him more than once. He produces a
book from the pocket of his robe. It is J’Accuse
by Emile Zola. He lifts the book over his head and shows it to the
audience. They neither cheer nor boo; amazingly, everyone in the
audience yawns at once.
The referee approaches the microphone that dangles from the rafters.
“Bill Belichick, you have been summoned here today to face
the charges of Mike Davis, who apparently needs a refresher course
in what sorts of cultural allusions are appropriate in sports writing.”
(Aside to Davis, “Put that book back in your pocket, you fantasy
hack.”)
Belichick looks confused, but he approaches the microphone to say,
“I think this is what you call mixing metaphors. Is this a
bet, a boxing match, or a trial?”
“Spell it out, Davis,” barks the ref. “And be
quick about it for once in your life!”
Davis can’t bear to look the coach directly in the eye. Instead,
he mugs for the audience as he says, “Mr. Belichick, I accuse
you of deliberately misleading the public with your injury reports
on a consistent basis.”
“Oh, that,” sighs Belichick.
“Well, what do you have to say for yourself?” asks Davis.
“Well, I’m not really trying to mislead the public.
I’m trying to mislead opposing teams. Everyone does it. You
should really be talking to Jim Mora, not me.”
*****
For those of you who don’t remember, Belichick was greatly
annoyed when the Falcons upgraded Vick from questionable to probable
prior to the Week 6 game—and then didn’t even have him
suit up. The Patriots presumably prepared for the running threat
that Vick posed rather than the more consistent passing threat posed
by Matt Schaub, which may have accounted in part for the difficult
time that the Pats had in edging the Falcons 31-28.
The following week, Belichick appeared to be mocking the injury
report by listing two players (Troy Brown and Richard Seymour) as
questionable on Friday even though they didn’t travel with
the team to a contest in Denver. Questionable is supposed to mean
that players have a 50% chance of seeing action, but the chance
would appear to be considerably lower than that when the players
in question are in their pajamas 2,000 miles away from the game.
I suppose Belichick could argue that he sincerely believed there
was a 50% chance that scientists would develop an elaborate system
of teleportation between Denver and Boston that weekend, but he
was more likely doing unto Shanahan as Mora had done unto him.
I would like to laugh at Bill’s little joke and move on, but
apparently Belichick himself has no intention of moving on. For
the rest of the season, the Patriots’ injury report was useless—largely
because Belichick seems to pay no attention to what the NFL means
by its categories of probable (75% chance of playing), questionable
(50% chance of playing), and doubtful (25% chance of playing). On
a case by case basis, I suppose there is something to what Jim Mora
has to say about this system: “What’s ‘questionable’
tell you? It tells you he might play, he might not.” But what
it should tell you is that of 100 questionable starter listings
over the course of a season, only about 50 should play. Of 100 doubtful
starter listings, only about 25 should play. Of 100 probable starter
listings, about 75 should play. Since Belichick seems to think that
Tom Brady should always be listed as probable (or worse), then we
should expect to see him in no more than 12 of 16 games. But those
probable listings for Brady in 2005 really translated to “certain,”
as he started every game of the season.
Or take a look at this injury report from Week 15, which reads more
like a box score summary than an injury report:
| Injury
Report: Week 15 |
| New
England vs. Tampa Bay |
| NE |
QUESTIONABLE |
T Tom Ashworth (knee);
QB Tom Brady (shin/right shoulder);
RB Corey Dillon (calf);
RB Heath Evans (shoulder);
RB Kevin Faulk (foot);
TE Daniel Graham (shoulder);
S Artrell Hawkins (thigh);
WR Bethel Johnson (pelvis);
T Nick Kaczur (shoulder);
RB Patrick Pass (hamstring);
CB Asante Samuel (infection);
S Michael Stone (ankle);
TE Ben Watson (head) |
|
The first score in that game against the Buccaneers was a touchdown
pass from the questionable Tom Brady to the questionable Tom Ashworth.
The second score was a touchdown run by the questionable Corey
Dillon. The questionable Kevin Faulk had 18 yards rushing. The
questionable Daniel Graham made no statistical contributions,
but was active for the game. The questionable Artrell Hawkins
had 7 tackles. The questionable Bethel Johnson returned a kick
for 20 yards. The questionable Patrick Pass snagged a pass for
4 yards. The questionable Asante Samuel had 7 tackles. And the
questionable Michael Stone had 2 tackles. Of 13 players listed
with a 50% chance to play, only 3 (a starting tight end, a significant
offensive lineman, and a scrub RB) missed the game.
If the explanation for Belichick’s injury reports is that
he is commenting on Mora’s handling of Vick in Week 5, then
is anyone else thinking that he should have wrapped up his commentary
by Week 15? And if we really want to blame Belichick’s behavior
on something Mora did in 2005, how does that account for the fact
that Belichick left Richard Seymour completely off the injury
report when he traveled to San Francisco without the player at
the end of the 2004 season?
*****
The referee taps Davis on the shoulder, “Everyone’s
waiting. What are you doing?”
“Oh, sorry. I just had to attend to some of my fantasy hack
stuff.”
“Well, can you get on with this please? Belichick is a busy
man.”
“Sure,” Davis says into the microphone. “Here
is the wager that I have in mind for you, Mr. Belichick. With percentages,
it seems to me that you should be striving to play a zero-sum game.”
“The more you talk,” Belichick snipes, “the less
I understand you.”
“It’s like this,” Davis says a bit too loudly
into the speaker system. “When you list a player as out, he
should have a 100% chance of missing the game.”
“Right.”
“So if you list a player as out, but he plays anyway, you
owe $100 to the charity of Paul Tagliabue’s choice.”
“I don’t think people accuse me of abusing the ‘out’
category.”
“No, but it’s a simple place to start. It also works
in reverse. A player who isn’t on the injury report at all
but misses the game due to injury costs you $100.”
“Oh, you’re still thinking about that Seymour thing
in 2004? That was a simple typo!”
“Now, when we get to probable, we have to switch things up
a bit. For every probable starter who plays, the pot owes you $25,
but for every probable starter who doesn’t play, you owe the
pot $75.”
“You mean if I want to keep listing Brady as probable every
week, I have to find some scrub to list as probable every fourth
week?”
“No, we’re talking starters here. You’ll completely
steamroll this system if we let you say that your 6th running back
in a full body cast is probable but isn’t likely to get a
chance to come in.”
“You really think I would do such a thing?”
“Let’s skip my opinion and get onto questionable, Bill.”
“I’m pretty sure I understand things from here. You’re
saying that if a player listed as questionable plays, then the pot
owes me $50, and if a player listed as questionable doesn’t
play, then I owe the pot $50.”
“You catch on quick.”
“And as for doubtful, when a doubtful player doesn’t
play, the pot owes me $25, but each doubtful player who sees action
costs me $75.”
“Exactly,” Davis says, relieved to be spared the pains
of explanation.
“But there’s one thing I don’t get,” Belichick
adds.
“What’s that?”
“Why should I take your stupid bet? I have nothing to gain,
and you have nothing to lose. It hardly seems like a bet at all.
It’s as screwed up as your metaphors.”
“The idea is that I keep track of how you handle your starters
all season, and if you finish anywhere between -$150 to $150, I
publicly apologize for saying that you abuse this system, but if
your deviation from zero is greater than that in either direction,
you give a corresponding donation to the United Way or some such
thing.”
“It’s pretty obvious that there’s a huge gap in
your logic,” says Belichick.
“What’s that?” asks Davis.
“You fantasy hacks can’t do anything in public. For
something to be done in public, people have to be watching.”
Belichick walks away in disgust.
I hate that man. He’s smarter than I am even in my own mixed
metaphors.
For responses to this fantasy question please email
Mike Davis. Readers who want to have their fantasy questions
answered live, on the air, by Mike Davis are invited to tune into
FFEXradio
on Friday afternoons at 5:00 p.m. EST. Archived
programs are also available. |
