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Statements St. Louis Made By Picking Sam Bradford #1
...and the fantasy impact of the pick
5/7/10

St. Louis found themselves with the first pick of the NFL draft in 2010, the third consecutive year in which they had one of the top two picks.

The Rams are convinced Bradford is the answer to their QB question.

It’s not a big secret that St. Louis requires a lot of help at a lot of positions. Going into the draft they had released Marc Bulger, which left A.J. Feely as their top option at quarterback. That obviously made quarterback a priority.

Their choice of QB Sam Bradford with the first pick of the draft at first glance seems like a straightforward pick: Quarterbacks are often picked #1 overall, and St. Louis needed one. However, in this particular draft, for this particular team, the choice of Sam Bradford makes some bold statements. St. Louis’s success over the next couple years depends on the accuracy of those statements.

Statement #1: St. Louis is confident Sam Bradford is healthy

If they weren’t it would probably make more sense to invest in a healthy player (e.g. Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy), and then take one of the top four quarterbacks with the first pick of the second round.

There is no consensus that Sam Bradford is completely healthy. He hasn’t played a game since his season-ending shoulder surgery in October 2009. He’s been knocked out of two of his last three games and has remained injured for long periods of time. At the NFL combine in February he refused to throw a football. By betting the farm on Bradford, St. Louis indicates they do not have serious concerns about his health.

Statement #2: St. Louis views Sam Bradford as being a lot (not just a little) better than Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow, and Colt McCoy

Some view this group of quarterbacks as all being similar in talent. Some rankings didn’t even have Sam Bradford as the highest-rated quarterback. St. Louis obviously does not share these opinions. If they did, they likely would have locked in Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, and been left with at least the option to take one of the four top quarterbacks at the start of the second round.

The general consensus among draft analysts is that there is no clear standout in this year’s group of quarterbacks. Many analysts rate Bradford as being a little more likely to succeed than the others – but there does not appear to be a consensus that Bradford is drastically better than the others. St. Louis, by choosing Bradford so high, shows they disagree and believe he is much more likely to succeed than Clausen, Tebow, or McCoy.

Statement #3: St. Louis is confident enough in their offensive line to put an expensive injury-prone quarterback in the backfield and commit to paying him large sums of money for a long period of time, even if he gets injured

Otherwise they would stick with their motley crew of quarterbacks, or take a chance with one or two picks in later rounds.

Let’s face it – when your offensive line allows as much damage as St. Louis’s, it doesn’t matter much who you put back there. Even Peyton Manning would have a tough time, getting hit as hard and often as Sam Bradford is going to be. There’s only so much a second round offensive tackle from Indiana can do to help.

I would rather save my money until I have a better offensive line – and wait to spend it on an expensive quarterback at that point. Or, better yet, try a decent quarterback in a later round. I would be concerned about making a major long-term investment in an injury-prone quarterback and putting him out there behind the St. Louis offensive line. St. Louis, by investing in Sam Bradford as their #1 pick, shows they do not share these concerns.

Conclusion

St. Louis made some bold statements with their choice of Bradford at the top of the draft this year. I hope for their sake that they’re right – on all of them. While it will cost a lot of money to be wrong, the good news for them is that, because they are still full of so many holes, there’s a decent chance they’ll have one of the top picks again next year.

Fantasy Impact

  • Many owners likely increased the value of St. Louis receivers (e.g. Donnie Avery) after the Bradford pick. Care should be taken in doing so, as any impact appears to be negligible at the moment. Consider the St. Louis receivers unchanged in value until they prove otherwise. Let someone else take them in an earlier round than they were taken last year.

  • Some might take chances on Bradford in the middle rounds of your draft. Again, let someone else take the risk on the rookie quarterback and his suspect offensive line.

  • The only potentially viable fantasy starter on the Rams continues to be Steven Jackson, until someone proves otherwise. Nothing changes here.
Questions or comments are always welcome.