10/13/09
Your coworker stops in and says, “Hey, I’ve got a great
deal for you”.
“Wow, you want to give me something worth more than you want
in return?! That sounds great! Let’s hear the details“,
you reply.
“All right, so I’ve got these two players who are going
to score 150 more points each this season. That’s 300 points
total. All I need is that player of yours who is going to score
200 more points the rest of the season.”
Let’s say he’s right, and the two players he is offering
will score exactly 150 more points the rest of the season. And let’s
say he’s right that the player you are giving up will score
exactly 200. Does the deal help your team? Who is worth more –
one player that will score 200 points, or the two players who’ll
score 150 each?
Think about it a little before proceeding.
OK – if you decided it’s definitely a good or bad deal
for you, that’s probably not the best answer. We can’t
evaluate this trade without more information.
This article investigates the value of trades in fantasy football.
I’ll start by discussing one important reason why we need
more information in the above example. I’ll then give some
practical advice that can be used in evaluating trades, and apply
it to some situations which might come up in practice.
Throughout the article we assume you and everyone in the league
have perfect knowledge of the future. That is, you know exactly
how many points every player is going to score for the rest of the
season.
Total Points
Let’s start by confirming we need more information to evaluate
this trade offer.
First, note that 150 + 150 = 300 which is more than 200. At first
glance that might seem to indicate getting the two players who will
score 150 might be better than having one player that scores 200.
In reality though, it’s not that simple.
Let’s say the 200-point player plays position X (X could be
QB, WR, RB, etc.). And let’s say one of the 150-point players
plays position Y, and the other plays position Z (Y and Z could
be QB, WR, RB, etc. and they could be the same or different positions).
Let’s split this into 2 cases. We’ll define the cases
based on the future performance of the best available player on
the waiver wire at each position. Keep in mind, this is a player
you can get basically for free at anytime, if you want him.
| Case #1 |
| Position |
Remaining FPts for Top Player on Waiver
Wire |
| X |
50 |
| Y |
50 |
| Z |
50 |
|
The player at position X who’ll score 200 points will score
150 more than the player you could get on the waiver wire for
free. The players at positions Y and Z will score 100 more points
than what you could get on the waiver wire for free, 200 total.
I’d rather get 200 points above what I can get for free
than 150. So I’d probably rather have the players at positions
Y and Z than just the player at position X.
Let’s look at another case.
| Case #2 |
| Position |
Remaining FPts for Top Player on Waiver
Wire |
| X |
75 |
| Y |
149 |
| Z |
149 |
|
The player at position X who’ll score 200 points will score
125 more than the player you could get on the waiver wire for
free. But the players at positions Y and Z will only score 2 points
more than what you could get on the waiver wire for free.
Step back and think about this a little. It’s nice that
the players at position Y and Z will get you 300 points and 300
is more than 200. But availability of free agents / waiver wire
picks in this game makes this comparison not that relevant since
you can pick up folks essentially for free off the waiver wire
that will get you 149 points at position Y and Z – these
150 points are essentially useless to you. What you’re really
being offered is 2 points in exchange for 125!
The only player with value in this trade is the player at position
X. If a trade like this goes through the manager giving up the
player at position X is losing a lot of value.
So How Can I Use This?
Here’s a situation I see frequently in my leagues.
Manager 1 offers Manager 2 a trade. Both sides agree the trade
is better for Manager 1, so Manager 2 says “No, thanks.”
In response manager 1 throws in an extra player or two that isn’t
much better than what’s available on the waiver wire - something
like a couple #2 receivers on teams that don’t pass much
- or maybe a #3 receiver in a pass-heavy offense.
Our discussion of Case 2 can help us evaluate these murky waters.
If the extra players thrown in aren’t much better than what’s
available on the waiver wire, then their addition should have
no impact on your evaluation of the trade. If you find yourself
in Manager 2’s shoes – and those extra folks swing
you from saying no to saying yes – you might find yourself
on the short end of the stick in the long run.
Other Considerations
At this point you might be thinking, “OK – I see that
thinking about a player’s value above what can be found
on the waiver wire is important. But there’s lot of other
important considerations too, right?” Things like:
- I have a bye week in week 7 – this player helps me
fill that weakness.
- I only need 2 RB’s so that extra RB or 2 isn’t
that useful to me.
- I’ve got a bad matchup at WR in week 12, and this player
helps me fill that weakness, because he faces a poor pass defense.
These types of issues should be considered – as long as you
give them proper weight (which isn’t a whole lot). I’ve
found there’s a tendency among new fantasy football managers
to think too much about complicated issues like this, without paying
enough attention to the simple value players add above what’s
available on the waiver wire. Assigning too much value to intricacies
will more often than not set you up for problems down the road.
The best fantasy football managers I’ve played against have
a knack for accounting for these subtleties while remaining solidly
grounded in the fundamentals presented at the start. Most managers
would be better off forgetting about these “other considerations”
and focusing only the relative value players add above what can
be found on the waiver wire.
If you have a really bad bye week situation coming up –
maybe that’s not as bad is it sounds. For example, it might
mean you don’t have any bad bye week scenarios remaining.
If you decide you have 2 RB’s and you only start 2, and
let that push you away from evaluating how much a RB is worth
above what’s on the waiver wire – you might find yourself
more exposed to injury-risk than other teams.
If you have a bad matchup coming up in week 12, keep in mind a
lot of things can change between now and then. Your player might
be injured, incarcerated, or maybe that bad matchup might become
better, due to a rejuvenated offense or defensive injuries.
Summary
Understanding the value of players beyond what is available on the
waiver wire is much more important than thinking of any
intricate trade details. Focus on the fundamentals first, and don’t
worry about the details until you have a good handle on the basics.
When you do have a good handle on the fundamentals, be sure to limit
the value you assign to these other considerations.
This simple approach can help minimize the damage an adept manager
can inflict on your team by exploiting holes in your valuations. |
