Like Linus without his blanket, 2016 will be a big transition year
for Matt Stafford as he begins his first NFL season without the
security of recently retired Calvin Johnson. Teaming for several
dozen touchdowns and thousands of yards over the past seven seasons,
Stafford’s continued maturation as a quarterback will come
without the aid of one of the all-time greatest receivers.
After getting off to a disastrous 1-7 start to the 2015 season,
Stafford and the Lions’ offense was in shambles. He absorbed
sack after sack, and the constant pressure led to just a 13-11 touchdown-to-interception
ratio. During the Week 9 bye week, Detroit made significant coaching
changes on the offensive side of the ball. New coordinator Jim Bob
Cooter changed the protection schemes, and worked to get the ball
out of Stafford’s hands quicker. Everything clicked in a big
way, as Stafford settled into a rhythm, throwing for 19 touchdowns
against only 2 interceptions, leading the Lions to an impressive
6-2 finish to close out the year. Stafford finished 2015 with his
highest career completion percentage (67%), and second-most touchdowns
(32).
So, what do we make of Stafford’s 2016 prospects? Well, losing one
of the most unstoppable receivers in NFL history certainly isn’t
going to help. Gone from the offense are Megatron’s 88 receptions,
1200 yards, and 9 touchdowns, numbers that can’t be replaced by
just newly signed Marvin Jones. Stafford is going to be forced to
spread the ball more, a task easier said than done. A 6’5, 230-pound
receiver covers up lots of mistakes, and Stafford is going to have
to continue to mature as a pocket passer if the Lions and your fantasy
team are going to benefit. Despite the solid finish to the year,
I think Stafford regresses a bit as he and the offense adjust to
the loss of Calvin, especially in the red zone. Back end QB1 status
is where Stafford fits for me now, but this offense does have some
potent potential, so he does provide a high ceiling.
Flying up preseason draft boards last offseason, Abdullah was drafted
as a high end RB2 with RB1 aspirations by the time the 2015 regular
season kicked off. Abdullah didn’t disappoint in the opener,
as he scored on an impressive run up the middle, and tallied 94
total yards. Little did fantasy owners know that first game would
turn out to be Abdullah’s best of the season. Displaying a
scant amount of patience, Abdullah constantly ran up the back of
his blockers, struggling to break big runs or become much of a threat
in the passing game. In addition to playing too fast, Abdullah had
ball control issues which eventually cost him playing time, especially
in crucial down and distance situations. Like the rest of the Lions
offense, he was a disaster before bye week changes led to a rebound.
Despite struggling for most of the year, the Lions regained a measure
of confidence in their rookie back, and he responded, rushing for
at least 4.4 yards per carry in four of the final five games of
the year.
With a year of experience under his belt, Abdullah should see his
efficiency rise in year two. But there are several factors that
conspire to limit his ceiling. First, the Lions offense will continue
to be as pass heavy as any in the league. The Lions attempted the
second-fewest rushes in the league last year, and that probably
won’t change much. The pass-first nature of the offense means Theo
Riddick soaks up most of the running back receptions, leaving Abdullah
only scraps. And lastly is the shoulder surgery that has cost the
former Cornhusker all of the off-season program. While he should
be healthy for the start of camp, shoulder injuries are scary for
runners. Although he remains a dynamic talent, the volume won’t
be there to give Abdullah consistent weekly value; he has some “flex”
appeal, and remains an explosive player with upside.
Another 2015 pre-season sensation, Zach Zenner played sparingly
before suffering a severe chest injury that sent him to IR in Week
6. The South Dakota State product has off-the-charts athleticism,
and should be in line to not only make the final roster, but carve
out a role in the Lions’ backfield. Zenner may face some competition
in camp from Stevan Ridley for the Lions short yardage role, but
he possesses infinitely more upside than the plodding former Patriot
and Jet. Abdullah is the primary ball carrier in this offense, but
Zenner makes for a perfect roster stash if your league has the space.
As the 3rd backfield option he has little value, but should he be
thrust into a more prominent role, he has the game and elite physical
tools to have a Charcandrick West type break-out.
Second in the NFL in receptions by a running back, Theo Riddick
burst onto the scene in 2015 and gave the Lions not only a consistent
receiving threat out of the backfield, but he gave fantasy owners
some substantial value, especially in PPR leagues. And that is where
Riddick’s value will continue to split. Because of his receiver-like
stats, and role on the offense, (99 targets vs 43 rushing attempts)
he has considerably more value in PPR leagues. Riddick remained
a high volume receiver even after the offensive changes made mid-season,
so that leads me to believe that approaching 80 catches again is
certainly plausible. With such a low rushing yardage and touchdown
ceiling, Riddick really becomes only a FLEX consideration in standard
leagues. Should Abdullah falter though, Riddick could be valuable
with additional touches.
After a monster 2014 that saw him catch 99 passes for more than
1,300 yards, Tate’s numbers took a tumble last year thanks
to the inept Lions offense early in the season, and the return to
health of Calvin Johnson. Two seasons ago Tate put on a clinic in
the games he filled in as the No.1 when Johnson missed time. He
gave us a glimpse of the elite after the catch ability he possesses,
and should thrive in what I think will be a passing game based on
quick timing throws. Tate flourishes in space, and gives quarterback
Matt Stafford a reliable target, even if he seemed to be a little
too close to the line of scrimmage at times last year. In fact,
despite catching 90 passes, Tate only racked up 813 yards, good
for only 9.0 yards per catch, over 4 yards-per-catch less than his
first year with the Lions. Tate’s 90 receptions were good
for 9th in the NFL, but his yardage total was only good for 33rd.
Because of the struggles of the O-line, Tate was sent out on an
overabundance of bubble screens and short slants, and he just couldn’t
break big gains. With a reworked scheme, and fresh bodies up front,
Tate should be free to work father downfield, and a serious uptick
in yardage is in order. If he can find the end zone a little more
frequently, Tate should return solid WR2 value for much of the season.
WR Marvin
Jones (2015 WR Rank - No.39, 6.8 FPts/G)
Filling the shoes of a perennial fantasy stud will certainly be
a tall order for Marvin Jones, the Lions newest addition at wideout.
Jones had a nice season last year for Cincinnati as he returned
from a foot injury that cost him the entire 2014 season. As the
third and sometimes fourth option in the passing game last year
for the Bengals, Jones racked up a solid 65-816-4 line. Nothing
about his final stats or weekly numbers pop off the page, but he
finished as a WR3/4. More importantly, he scored 10 touchdowns in
the season prior to his foot injury, and his size and frame should
give him a prominent role, especially in the red zone. Listen, no
one is replacing Megatron’s annual 1300 yards and 12-plus
touchdowns, but the opportunities will be there for Jones to set
career highs in yards and catches. My biggest concern with his statistical
output is the fact he failed to have big games, even when facing
single coverage due to the presence of A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert.
Other than a 12-target game at Buffalo in Week 6, Jones either never
seemed to be a big part of the game plan, or simply couldn’t
get open enough. Golden Tate is going to lead this team in catches,
but Jones has a chance to make an impact for your fantasy team,
although I’d be hard pressed to have him as anything more
than a mid-level WR3.
I tabbed Ebron as a streaming or bye week option heading in the
2015 season, and I was pretty close, as he finished 13th overall
among tight ends and finished his second year with a 47-537-5 line,
solid numbers for a 22-year old player. Although he made too many
mental and physical errors, and has yet to play up to his high draft
selection, 2016 is a big year for Ebron. The Lions desperately need
him to help fill the void left by Calvin Johnson, and Ebron has
the physical stature to do the job. The former Tar Heel doubled
his stat line from his rookie year to year 2, and I expect this
progression to continue. His production is nearly identical to that
of Vernon Davis, a player whose game and draft position mirror Ebron’s.
It took Davis until his fourth year to break out and join the ranks
of the elite, but I think Ebron could get there this season. If
he can keep his head on straight and stop dropping catchable passes,
Ebron has the talent and situation to jump into the top 5 at his
position.
