Risk is high: Back, groin and Achilles
injuries have plagued Arian Foster over the last three seasons.
It’s no secret running backs have lost some luster not only
in real football, but in fantasy as well. Few positions are more
physically demanding, and the window for running back success shuts
quickly and painfully. Teams have recognized that running back depth
is vital, and shared backfields are the norm. Arian Foster joining
the Miami Dolphins is a textbook example of the life of an NFL running
back.
Foster was uniquely dominant during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons.
A dual threat capable of catching 50 passes, scoring 12 touchdowns,
while running for 1400-plus yards, Foster rode his deceptive, gliding
running style to prodigious success. During that three-season span
he was one of fantasy football’s most dominant players, and
basically carried the Texans offense. Carrying the team was not
without peril, as Foster suffered a severe back injury and missed
half the 2013 season. He bounced back in 2014, finishing with 1,200-plus
yards rushing and 13 total touchdowns. But 2014 also saw Foster
miss time with calf, groin and hamstring injuries. Prior to the
2015 season Foster again went down with a serious groin injury,
before eventually rupturing his Achilles and missing the remainder
of the year. Yes, the medical file and litany of soft tissue injuries
have overshadowed what was once a stellar career. The Texans let
him go this offseason, unable and unwilling to wait for the next
injury to knock him out of the lineup.
So what are the Dolphins getting with Foster? On paper, they’re
getting a snake bitten 30-year-old (August) running back with tremendous
wear on his tires, with a history of on-field success. His rehab
from the torn Achilles has gone well, and he refused to work out
for teams until he was “game ready”. The fact Miami
signed him so quickly tells me one of two things. First, Foster
either looked tremendous physically (he’s one of the hardest
workers in the NFL) and the Dolphins had no choice but to sign him,
or the more likely scenario, the Dolphins haven’t been impressed
by what they’ve seen from Jay Ajayi and their current backs
on the roster. Conversely, I don’t believe Foster would have
signed without some playing time assurances. The one-year deal is
incentive laden, and probably designed to be reachable if Foster
can maintain health.
My best guess is that Foster’s fantasy impact turns out to
be more of a drain on Ajayi than a boon for himself. The Dolphins
can pair Foster with their first and second year backs, ride him
when he’s hot, and protect him when necessary. Ten to twelve
carries, and another three to four catches a game sounds about his
weekly ceiling, but the 2.6 yards per carry he had last year before
the injury doesn’t bode well for his upside. This is a full
blown committee and their usage will depend greatly on game flow
and down and distance. Foster, the reliable veteran, will be the
preferred red zone back giving him the scoring advantage over Ajayi.
As a result the Miami backfield has gone from one I hoped to avoid,
to one I’m not touching.
Teams usually sign aging veterans and claim they will mix them in
and take it easy on them. Then, two things happen. The player demonstrates
they are utterly out of gas and ineffective (Andre Johnson), or
they look good, and the team, under the pressure to win, overuses
them, and the vet ends up hurt again (Steve Smith). Let’s
hope Foster breaks the mold and gives it one more go as a top five
RB.
