To say Matthew Stafford had a regression in 2014 is akin to calling
water wet. It was obvious to every disappointed Stafford owner last
year, as he finished outside the QB1 threshold after finishing in
the top-5 the previous year. Those in Stafford’s corner will say
it was his first year in a complicated system, and he was without
Calvin Johnson for a good chunk of the season. Despite the low touchdown
total (22), he completed over 60% of his passes for only the second
time in his career, and threw a career low 12 interceptions. He
finished 2014 by leading his team to the playoffs, and posting a
strong 8-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with two
300-plus-yard games over the last five games of the season.
If you believe the final five games of the 2014 season are a precursor
to 2015 success I might wait to buy a ticket on the Stafford hype
train. Being a former long-time Detroit area resident, I’ve watched
Stafford play extensively over the years, and I’ve come to conclusion
that he’s a mediocre quarterback. Sure his arm talent is nearly
unrivaled, but during a game you are as likely to say “wow, how
the heck did he make that throw?”, as you are to say “why the heck
did he make that throw!”. After six years in the league he still
hasn't developed a consistent ability to put touch on the ball,
and his fantasy stats have been largely influenced by a ridiculous
number of pass attempts. He fails to elevate the players around
him, and struggles mightily when any of them miss time. Some games
he throws darts all over the field for four quarters, and in others
can’t hit a car dealership in suburban Detroit! (it’s a Michigan
thing, just trust me). With the Lions publically stating a desire
to commit more to the running game (their first two draft picks
support this idea), Stafford’s pass attempts should be the lowest
since his rookie year. The health of Calvin Johnson and development
of Eric Ebron will go a long way in helping his Ryan Fitzpatrickian
sub 50% completion percentage in the red zone. Stafford is a great
option for owners looking to add their starting quarterback later
in the draft as he provides a fairly high floor, and ceiling, but
don’t rush out to build your roster around the former Bulldog. Think
low end QB1 with 30+ touchdown upside.
Could 2014 see the triumphant return of the relevant fantasy rookie
runner? If so, look for Abdullah to be one of the players that usher
in that return. Being one of the best running backs in Nebraska
history is nothing to scoff at, as the 5’9’’ former Cornhusker brings
elite level athleticism, and dual threat ability to an offense that
needs playmakers in the backfield. The SPARQ score winner of the
2015 draft season, Abdullah makes up for his lack of size with a
“can’t catch him in a phone booth” level of elusiveness, and quickness.
The NFL has evolved into a place where smaller, faster runners (think
Shady McCoy and Jamaal Charles) can excel as lead backs that make
an impact inside the tackles, out on the edge, and in the passing
game. Standing in the way of fantasy prominence for Abdullah is
the presence of his backfield mates, and the desire of head coach
Jim Caldwell to make this a committee approach. Joique Bell is coming
off multiple lower leg surgeries this off-season but is the incumbent
starter and while not much of a playmaker, still gives the Lions
their most trusted pass protector, and goal line runner. Last year
we saw another elite athlete, Jerick McKinnon from Minnesota, have
his touches affected by a very similar back to Bell in Matt Asiata.
It’s very possible that Bell plays well enough for the better part
of the year to sap a significant amount of production from Abdullah.
Keep a very close eye on the health of Bell and the mental development
of Abdullah early in camp. If his mental preparation keeps up with
his physical talent, Abdullah should lead this committee before
too long. Look for a RB3 first half of the year, with upside to
crack into the RB2 range by the end of the year.
RB Joique
Bell (2014 RB Rank – No.14, 11.1 FPts/G)
Joique Bell sits in a very cliché position as the 2015 camp
season opens up. He’s the aging (29 in August), injured vet
that has young dogs nipping at his heels, and gunning for his job.
The thing is, adversity like this is what Bell had to handle just
to get a chance in the NFL. He’s overcome tremendous odds
just to get this far, and if you think he’ll disappear from
being a part of the Lions offense in 2015 you’re naive, or
have already drafted Ameer Abdullah! Bell was exactly what he was
in 2014 as what he was in 2013. A sub 4.0 yards-per-carry runner
who gets what’s blocked, stonewalls blitzes, and wins at the
goal line. Bell’s steady play is a valuable asset to a team
that has playoff aspirations. Despite the drafting of Ameer Abdullah,
don’t discount the 16 total touchdowns and 2,379 total yards
over the last two seasons that Bell has produced. Assuming he’ll
be sufficiently recovered from the offseason surgeries, Bell will
still have a role on this team, abet a diminished one. While Bell
is steady, the Lions want more from their running game, and will
give Abdullah plenty of opportunities, many at Bell’s expense.
Look for a downtick of touches and total yards, but the red zone
opportunities should still be there. Bell’s low-upside and
tenable grasp on the starting job don’t inspire much fantasy
confidence, but there will be value here as a RB3/4.
RB Theo
Riddick (2014 RB Rank – No.57, 4.7 FPts/G)
After Reggie Bush was released it looked like Theo Riddick was on
his way to a big upgrade in playing time. But then the Lions drafted
Ameer Abdullah in the second round, and once again Riddick finds
himself scrounging around for touches. Riddick was much more receiver
than runner in 2014, as he amassed nearly double the amount of receptions
(34) to carries (20). This isn’t a surprise considering Riddick
was a receiver early in his college career. There will be a role
for Riddick on this team, as the Lions have utilized him as a slot
receiver and passing down back early in OTAs. Despite targeting
their runners the second-most in the league last season, that opportunity
won’t be nearly enough to translate into fantasy relevance.
I’d certainly keep Riddick on my “free agents to track”
list, as it’s certainly possible Bell has physical setbacks
or Abdullah struggles as a rookie, but for now he doesn’t
hold much value.
There aren’t many receivers in fantasy history that can essentially
miss five games and still finish in the top-15. That should tell
you everything you need to know about Calvin Johnson. Despite
the injuries, he still finished with a standard scoring 12.0 points
per game, which was good for No.10 in the NFL. Yes, he’s lost
a step, and has missed a few starts over the last two seasons,
but he’ll be targeted relentlessly in the red zone, has a threatening
wing mate in Golden Tate, and still possess one of the highest
wide receiver ceilings in the NFL. Johnson has three top-5 finishes
(including two No.1 overall) in his last four seasons, and if
he plays 16 games, he’s a virtual lock to finish in the top-5
again. Sure he’s probably on the downswing in his career, (and
not an ideal dynasty pick) which is why he could be a serious
value pick in the second round. He’s capable of winning your week
by himself, and still has 1500 yard, 10-plus touchdown upside,
making him an easy WR1.
This time last offseason I thought Tate’s fantasy value
would be tied to the health and development of the other Detroit
offensive weapons. As it happened, Calvin Johnson missed five
games, the running backs were banged up and Eric Ebron failed
to become much more than a cursory part of the offensive game
plan. So last year the Lions desperately needed Tate to step up,
and boy did he ever! From weeks 4-10, Tate was the offense for
Detroit, as he tallied a ridiculous 50-708-3 line. It seems like
the only thing holding him back in Seattle was the lack of opportunity,
which unfortunately, is the one thing that might bring him back
down to earth in 2015. You see, in the games where Johnson was
healthy, Tate’s targets, and subsequent catch, and yardage
totals dropped significantly, and he also was a near zero factor
in the red zone. While Tate’s totals will without a doubt
take quite a dip in 2015, he’s proved to have the ability
to dominate games when necessary, and should approach 70-plus
catches, 1000 yards and 5 touchdowns, making him a strong WR2/3
with scary upside.
I was a little higher on Ebron than most last season. I thought
he would struggle early to adjust to the NFL game, as many raw,
athletically dependent rookies do. What I didn’t foresee
is that struggle continuing through the whole year. By his own
admission, the game never really slowed down for Ebron, and despite
being in a serious need of playmakers in the middle part of the
season, he was never able to surpass 4 receptions or 38 yards
in a game. Most disappointingly, he couldn’t even muster
any value as a red zone scoring threat. The good news for Ebron,
and fantasy owners looking for tight end upside, is that 2015
can only be better! Although OTA reports haven’t been glowing,
Ebron has been working with Stafford extensively to gain the gunslingers
trust, but he must display the ability to grasp the technical
aspects of the position to put him in line for more opportunity.
I don’t think Ebron will enter into weekly starter territory
in 2015, but could be in line for a few useful weeks, making him
someone to watch as a streamer or bye week replacement.
