Carson Palmer was a legitimate NFL MVP candidate during the 2015
season, but the wheels started to come off in 2016. It’s hard to
tell whether it was age, injuries, play-calling or a lack of performance
from his receivers, but Palmer took a huge step back this past season.
Realistically, Palmer’s unbelievable 8.7 yards per pass attempt
from 2015 was unsustainable. But to see that number drop down to
7.1 yards per attempt – his worst number in six seasons – was a
bit shocking. Of course, the departure of Michael Floyd and the
recurring illnesses of John Brown were not helpful. One major concern
is the Cardinals have seemingly transitioned into an offense centered
around the skillset of running back David Johnson, who absolutely
exploded this past season with gigantic production despite struggles
from the majority of the other players in the offense.
Given the age, size and injury history of the receivers on the roster,
Palmer simply doesn’t have the weapons he has had at his disposal
in the past. The truth is that we’re unlikely to ever see
Palmer put together another season similar to the whopping 35-touchdown,
4,600-plus yard season he did in 2015. However, that doesn’t
mean that he’s guaranteed to be the same guy we saw struggle
with efficiency this past season. Palmer is firmly entrenched as
a QB2 at the moment, but he’s never been particularly safe
with the ball, which certainly limits his upside. He’s a high-floor
option when he’s healthy, but he’s dealt with injuries
in the past so there is some risk there as well.
RB David Johnson
(2016 RB Rank – No. 1, 20.7 FPts/G)
David Johnson touched the ball a league-most 373 times last season,
which he turned into an impressive 2,118 total yards and 20 touchdowns.
His 80 catches in the passing game were best among running backs
in the NFL - five more than Le’Veon Bell and 20 more than
third-place finisher James White. Needless to say, Johnson is a
player who can truly do it all for your fantasy team and it makes
sense why he’s practically locked in at No. 1 or No. 2 overall
in most leagues. What’s interesting is that while Johnson
had a monster season, the Cardinals as a team still finished 18th
in rushing yards. Johnson accounted for a whopping 71.5 percent
of the team’s ground game and no other player in the offense
had even 200 rushing yards on the year. Those numbers are extraordinarily
high and indicate that Johnson might be the biggest bell-cow of
any running back in the entire league. However, it also means that
he’s bound to have some wear and tear by the end of the season.
The Cardinals offensive line remains a liability in pass protection
but they’re actually a solid run-blocking offensive line
with the likes of guards Evan Boehm and Mike Iupati. That, combined
with his high usage, make Johnson one of the safest first round
running backs – if there is such a thing – that we’ve
seen in recent years. The added concerns of legal issues over
the past few seasons for the other top backs, Le’Veon Bell
and Ezekiel Elliott, should give Johnson an even stronger case
to be selected as the No. 1 player drafted in fantasy drafts.
The Cardinals have brought back veteran CJ2K on a one-year deal
to add depth to their running back group. Johnson was limited
to four games last season after leading the team in rushing in
2015. At age 31, he won’t have much value unless David Johnson
goes down with an injury and in that scenario he would likely
be involved in a timeshare with Andre
Ellington, Kerwynn
Williams and rookie T.J. Logan. He’ll likely be a late-round
pick or go undrafted in your league.
While other players on the roster have more NFL experience, it’s
rookie running back T.J. Logan who is drawing interest from fantasy
circles as a potential backup for David Johnson. The rookie rushed
for 2,165 yards and 19 touchdowns over his four seasons at North
Carolina in college. Those numbers aren’t particularly impressive
on the surface, but it’s also true that he never took a
full share of carries. He was also a solid pass catcher and showed
impressive explosion when he had the ball in the open field.
Logan’s skill set seems to indicate that he’s the
best option on the roster to be a change-of-pace back for Johnson,
should the team opt to implement that strategy in 2017. They did
not do so in 2016, so there’s no clear path to significant
playing time for Logan, or any other back on this roster, at the
moment. Still, we’ve seen enough from the other backs on
this roster to know that none of them really possess the ability
to be game breaking fantasy options in the scenario that they’d
be given the opportunity. Logan isn’t built to be an every
down back for an entire season, but he’s not tiny either.
At 5’9” and around 200 lbs, he should able to fill
in for Johnson should that be needed for a short period of time.
If Johnson were to be knocked out for the season, however, it
would be surprising if Logan, or veteran Chris Johnson, would
be immediately transitioned into a full time role as a workhorse
back. Logan and Johnson are mostly handcuffs for DJ owners, but
both could return some value if the Cardinals do end up giving
Johnson some additional rest to sustain his health.
Another year older, another year wiser for Cardinals wide receiver
Larry Fitzgerald who has now gone over 100 receptions and 1,000
yards in back-to-back seasons while making 15 total touchdown
receptions over the past two years. He’ll be 34 years-old
this year, but Fitzgerald has given us very little reason to believe
that he won’t again be Carson Palmer’s favorite target
in an offense that has shown that it can move the ball.
The 6’3”, 220 lb wide receiver doesn’t exactly
fit the mold of what would be considered a slot receiver for most
teams, but that’s the role he’s been doing the most
damage out of in recent seasons. His selflessness has allowed
him to take his tremendous route-running skills and extend his
career by becoming exactly what the team needed him to be. In
fact, Fitzgerald was tied for second-most receptions out of the
slot in the NFL this past season with 63 catches. He did that
while battling a knee injury for much of the season.
Fitzgerald only had one game with over 81 yards receiving on the
season and he caught just one touchdown after Week 5. Still, he
was a PPR workhorse, catching at least three passes in every contest
and at least five passes in all but three games. Now healthy again,
Fitzgerald projects to again be a great WR3 with very realistic
WR2 potential. His high target volume makes him a high floor option
again this year, but his upside isn’t likely as a WR1 anymore,
at least not on a week-to-week basis.
John Brown was a favorite among fantasy circles heading into the
2016 season. He was coming off a breakout 2015 where he caught
65 passes for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns and he was the
young, big playmaker in a group of older, slower pass catchers
who’s skills were diminishing. His 2016 season started off
slow, however, with just one reception in each of his first two
games before he exploded again with 17 receptions over his next
two contests. Things looked to be back on track before Brown began
seeing the symptoms of a blood disorder (sickle-cell) which led
to missed time and a tremendous amount of frustration from fantasy
owners.
Obviously the blood disorder is a major concern heading into 2017,
but there are reports coming out of Arizona that the team believes
it has found a way to treat the problem, which should mean a much
healthier start to the season. Because of his volatility, however,
Brown remains one of the most obvious “boom or bust”
players in the entire league heading into this season. If he can
stay on the field, he has the real potential to lead the team
in yards and touchdowns. On the flip side, there’s a real
possibility that he doesn’t even play half the team’s
snaps if his health remains an issue.
Aside from Fitzgerald and Brown, the only other Arizona receiver
who should be on your radar heading into the 2017 season is third-year
speedster J.J. Nelson. Nelson saw increased playing time in 2016
as John Brown dealt with injuries and the team moved on from Michael
Floyd. His 568 receiving yards were second among Cardinals receivers
while his six touchdowns were tied for most on the team. But it’s
his explosiveness that made him most valuable to the Cardinals,
as his 16.7 yards per reception were sixth-best in the entire
NFL.
At only 5’10” and 160 lbs, the biggest concern with
Nelson has to be his durability. While he’s certainly capable
of beating a defense deep, those passes are obviously going to
be few and far between and Nelson hasn’t shown the ability
to b be a consistent producer. Even with all of the situations
going on with other receivers on the roster, Nelson had just three
games with more than 3 receptions in 2016 and just one game with
more than 5 receptions. That type of volatility makes Nelson tough
to own in anything other than best-ball formats, unless Brown
and Fitzgerald deal with injuries which would make Nelson’s
the team’s de facto No. 1 target. He doesn’t fit the
mold as a prototypical every down receiver like rookie Chad Williams
does, but Williams is raw and won’t likely get much playing
time without significant injuries to the receivers ahead of him
on the depth chart.
A former first round NFL Draft pick to the Cincinnati Bengals,
Jermaine Gresham has not been much of a receiver since moving
to Arizona. While he’s been a big upgrade from prior tight
end options, Gresham has been nowhere near the receiver that he
was in Cincinnati when he caught at least 4 touchdowns in each
of his five seasons with that club. Gresham’s 3 total touchdowns
in two seasons with the Cardinals has made him nothing more than
a bye week replacement at best for fantasy purposes.
While the Cardinals desperately need some consistency aside from
Fitzgerald and David Johnson in their passing game, Gresham just
doesn’t seem to be the player that he once was. His realistic
upside is around 500 yards with somewhere between four to six
touchdowns, but it’s more likely that he’ll be around
400 receiving yards with only a few scores this season. That means
that he’ll likely go undrafted in most leagues, and rightfully
so.
