With the landing spots of the 2018 rookie
class now determined, it is time to take a closer look at where
these players will likely go in your rookie dynasty drafts. Take
a look back at my pre-NFL draft
rookie draft and compare it with this draft you will see a lot
of the same names but in slightly different order, along with a
couple new-comers to the first round.
With several months to go before the season starts, the values are
bound to change based on camp battles, player progression, and injuries
but this should give you a good idea what to expect if your league
is drafting in the next month or two.
Note: for this mock I am using a standard scoring, 12 team league.
1.01 RB Saquon Barkley, New York
Giants Previous Pick: RB Saquon Barkley
I mentioned I did not see anyway this pick would change pre and
post-NFL draft, and I was right. One of the very best running
back prospects of the past decade, Barkley lands in a decent spot,
with tons of draft capital (2nd overall pick), a veteran quarterback,
and plenty of offensive weapons around to occupy the defense.
The knock on the Giants is their lack of a legitimate offensive
line, but they improved the unit through free agency and the draft
and Barkley has enough pure talent to overcome a lackluster group
anyway. Barkley is a no-brainer pick in all formats at this spot.
1.02 RB Derrius Guice, Washington Previous Pick: RB Derrius Guice
Pre-NFL draft I thought Guice was a lock at this pick, but his
stock certainly took a small hit when he fell to the end of the
2nd round, increasing his fantasy risk. With that being said,
Guice still has extreme talent and his landing spot does not hurt,
as he should be the centerpiece of an offense with nice complimentary
pieces but no star power to siphon touches away from the rookie
runner. At the very least, Guice is in position to be a short
yardage touchdown machine in his first year, similar to his ex-teammate
Leonard Fournette. While the risk meter certainly rose because
of his draft slide, it is not enough to knock him out of a top
3 dynasty rookie pick, as he offers a comfortable floor and a
high ceiling as a power back capable of double digit touchdowns.
Penny: Seattle has been looking for an
early-down pounder ever since Marshawn Lynch left in 2015.
1.03 RB Rashaad
Penny, Seattle Previous Pick: RB Sony Michel
Pick 3 is where the argument begins for many, with three or four
viable options firmly in the running. I loved Penny’s talent
going into the NFL draft but did not imagine he would go in the
first round as the second RB off the board. In Seattle, Penny
finds himself in an interesting situation. On one hand, the offensive
line is well below average and the run game has been among the
leagues’ worst the past two seasons. On the other hand,
the Seahawks obviously love him and the competition is flimsy
at best. Penny has the skill set to be a three-down back from
day one, and given the draft capital the Seahawks spent, it is
likely they envision him in this role. While his efficiency may
go up and down this season, Penny will likely get the second most
rookie RB touches just behind Barkley.
1.04 RB Sony
Michel, New England Previous Pick: RB Nick Chubb
The landing spot for Michel is a complicated one but when you
add in his three-down back skill-set, picking Michel in the top
5 seems like a worthy gamble. As the third RB drafted, and one
of just three drafted in the first round, Michel has a lot of
draft capital invested in him and is on a team that can run the
ball effectively. On the flip side, we know the Patriots’
reputation when it comes to running backs. They rotate players
through the position and it can be difficult to predict the workload
of any one player on a weekly basis. In addition, everyone in
the crowded backfield has been effective at one point or another
in their respective careers. In the end, the upside of Michel
producing at a 2017 Dion Lewis level, which is certainly in his
range of outcomes, is too tempting to make him drop out of the
top 5 picks in most rookie drafts.
1.05 RB Ronald
Jones, Tampa Bay Previous Pick: WR Courtland Sutton
I was not a huge fan of Jones before the NFL draft but it is hard
to deny the possibilities that his landing spot could provide.
Not only was Jones drafted relatively high (early 2nd round),
but he lands on a team with very little competition in the backfield
and more than enough firepower in the passing game to keep defenses
distracted. Given his skill-set it would not be a surprise to
see the Bucs feature Jones as a three-down back, even if he does
not get as many touches as some of the more traditional three-down
types. With solid draft capital, open running lanes, and little
competition, Jones is very worthy of a top 5 pick in most dynasty
rookie drafts.
1.06 RB Nick
Chubb, Cleveland Previous Pick: WR Calvin Ridley
I can see Chubb’s rookie draft position being a very polarizing
topic in dynasty circles this year, as there are probably two
different trains of thought. With his talent being undeniable,
taking Chubb in the first round is a no-brainer move but the dilemma
lies with Chubb’s landing spot. On one hand, Cleveland looks
to be an up and coming offense, with a decent offensive line,
solid receivers and lots of potential at quarterback. On the other
hand, Cleveland already has two running backs (Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson), with modest, recent success, and at the very least,
are going to be more active than Chubb in the pass game. Chubb,
at least in 2018, has a wide range of outcomes that could see
him riding the bench most of the year, all the way up to being
featured at the position and getting 15+ touches per game. Chubb’s
long-term outlook is likely a feature back but those drafting
him may need to prepare for a redshirt first year, meaning he
may be unusable most of the 2018 season. You certainly need to
weigh the potential risks and rewards when looking to draft Chubb,
but don’t expect him to fall out of the top 8 picks in rookie
drafts.
Freeman jumps in my post-NFL draft rookie mock based on an excellent
landing spot where he has a chance to shine as a feature back
as soon as this season. In Denver, Freeman will find himself behind
an improving offensive line, with a ton of talent at the receiver
position, a steady veteran quarterback, and lack of proven competition
at the running back position. In my pre-NFL draft mock I described
Freeman as fundamentally sound, and I think this will be a key
to him playing early and often in his career. While Denver may
ease him into a feature role, rather than just hand him the keys,
Freeman still projects to contribute early and by the end of the
2018 season, could easily outperform backs drafted higher than
him.
1.08 WR D.J. Moore, Carolina Previous Pick: RB Ronald Jones
As the first wide receiver selected in the NFL draft, Moore gets
a lboost here in my post-NFL draft mock. The landing spot is not
ideal, as Cam Newton isn’t exactly Drew Brees in terms of
accuracy, but given where the Panthers took him, and what else
they are working with in the passing game, Moore has a chance
to contribute early, and eventually lead the team in receiving.
Greg Olsen on the down-slope of his career and Devin Funchess
provides average production (and a free agent in 2019), making
Moore drip with fantasy upside the next several years. He is also
polished enough to have his moments as soon as this season. While
Moore is not a lock to ever be a fantasy WR1 (no receiver is in
this class is), I believe he has the best chance to flirt with
WR1 numbers before any other WR in this class, and should be a
safe WR2 for several years. After the “safe” rookie
running backs are off the board, Moore should be a nice selection
in the back half of the first round in rookie drafts.
1.09 RB Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Previous Pick: RB Royce Freeman
Feelings were mixed on Johnson before the NFL draft, but Detroit
liked him enough to select him in the early 2nd round. Johnson
has the skill set to be a feature back and despite average athleticism
for the position, has drawn Le’veon Bell comparisons from
some analysts. In Detroit, Johnson has some familiar names in
the backfield with him (LeGarrette Blount, Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick), but Blount is well past his prime, Abdullah has severely
underwhelmed, and Riddick is not a three-down player. While it
is very doubtful Johnson starts the season as the team’s
bell-cow, he could, by seasons end, could be getting 12-plus touches
per game, with upside for more depending on how the backfield
shakes out. The Lions possess a dangerous passing game, an improving
offensive line, and a supposed re-commitment to the run, giving
Johnson an opportunity to be efficient in his role. Top 18 RB
numbers could easily follow by the end of the season and by 2019,
the backfield could be all his, giving Johnson both short and
long-term value, nicely justifying a top 10 pick in rookie drafts.
1.10 WR Calvin
Ridley, Atlanta Previous Pick: WR D.J. Moore
Ridley takes a bit of a fall from pre to post-NFL draft, based
on multiple running backs landing in favorable spots. Ridley landed
in a favorable spot himself with good draft capital (1st round),
a solid veteran quarterback, and an alpha-dog receiver (Julio Jones) to draw defensive attention. While Ridley will not ascend
to the WR1 spot in Atlanta (barring injury), he was not that type
of receiver to begin with, so having Julio in place should give
Ridley an advantage. Ridley might not receive a ton of targets
his first year, but should be very efficient with the ones he
does get, making for a high ceiling play each week. Look for Ridley
to be similar to what Will Fuller was in his rookie year, with
about 50 catches for 700 yards and 4-5 touchdowns being attainable,
with room to grow in the years to come.
1.11 WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Previous Pick: QB Lamar Jackson
On the surface, Sutton’s landing spot hurt his fantasy
status, as he looks to be the Broncos third option, at best, in
the passing game this year. Since we’re discussing dynasty
value, however, savvy owners will realize the massive potential
this gives Sutton in the years post-2018. Sutton will learn from
Demaryius Thomas - a guy who many analysts compared Sutton to
coming out of college. From all accounts, Sutton works hard and
takes to coaching, so learning from someone with a similar skill-set
gives him an advantage in my book. While a “redshirt”
year in 2018 awaits, Sutton will not have much pressure on him
and should get some chemistry going with Case Keenum. Fast forward
to 2019 and Sutton should jump into, at the very least, the No.2
receiver role, with a good chance he’s the number one guy
if both Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are released. In that scenario,
Sutton could go from a seldom used role player, to a top 18 fantasy
WR with double digit touchdown potential. While fantasy owners
may have to wait a year for the payoff, a late first round pick
is a small price to pay for this kind of potential.
1.12 WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Previous Pick: TE Dallas Goedert
I was not a huge Gallup fan before the draft but it is hard to
argue with how juicy of a landing spot he fell into. Gallup does
not burst off the screen in most areas but has a nice size/speed
combo and is tough, competitive, and improving as a technician
at the position. The situation is unique in Dallas, as well over
200 targets are available from last season, with the release of
Dez Bryant and the retirement of Jason Witten. With a young and
talented quarterback and Ezekiel Elliott garnering most of the
defenses attention, Gallup should have some nice opportunities
as potentially, the teams’ most targeted receiver. While
nobody should expect a top 20 fantasy season, it’s not outside
the realm of possibilities of Gallup being an every-week WR3 in
his first season. Thanks to an ideal landing spot, Gallup is a
fine choice at the end of round one in rookie drafts.
