DeAndre Washington (left) lands in one
the best spots for a rookie running back. He's a steal in
Rd 3.
For true hardcore fantasy football fans there is nothing like joining
a dynasty league and doing a rookie draft. While rookie drafts are
normally just 3-4 rounds and the talent pool thins out fairly fast,
there is certainly potential and value in every single pick. Players
like David
Johnson and Matt
Jones went later in most rookie drafts last season (Round
3 in mine) and proved to be amazing value for the savvy owners.
On the flip side, players like Nelson
Agholor and Ameer
Abdullah typically went early and paid very little dividends
on the investment. The lesson here is that every single pick is
important and you never know which pick(s) could make or break your
fantasy team.
I am part of several dynasty leagues, each with a little different
scoring system and makeup, but I wanted to highlight one draft that
took place recently to aid in your own preparation. This particular
league is fairly traditional except it is a 2-QB league which obviously
changes some strategy - No PPR, 12 teams, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex.
In dynasty leagues, especially well-established ones, there are
always going to be rebuilding teams, championship caliber teams,
and teams in the middle of pack with a wide range of outcomes depending
on several factors like injuries, player ages, and depth of roster.
My personal strategy for rookie drafts, regardless of which category
my team fits in, remains the same. I normally want players that
have the best chance of putting up solid numbers right away so that
I can either play them immediately, or, to build value so I can
trade for pieces I might need at other positions. This year’s
draft class appears to have late value because there are very few
obvious players that are safe bets to make an immediate impact.
Best Pick of the Round: Our first
round was filled with the usual names you will see in most rookie
drafts, in some order or another, so no real obvious steals here.
Josh
Doctson, who many owners had as high as No.2, was a nice bargain
at No.5. A couple things changed since the NFL Draft that might
have dropped him a bit, at least in some owners’ minds. An injury,
or perhaps injuries have kept Doctson out of most offseason practices
and while it is never good to miss time your first year, it’s likely
he will be a full-go come training camp. Second, some people thought
the Redskins would waive Pierre
Garcon or DeSean
Jackson, but that doesn’t seem likely anymore. At best, Doctson
starts the season as the Redskins 4th option in the passing game,
but with Jackson and Jordan
Reed’s injury history, and Garcon’s age and apparent decline,
Doctson could easily move up quickly and become a serious big play/red-zone
threat as soon as Week 1. Give him a year to pack on a little muscle
and say goodbye to Garcon and/or Jackson in 2017 and Doctson could
easily have top 15 receiver potential.
Worst Pick of the Round: I realize
Jared
Goff might not go as high in many drafts, but remember, this
is a 2-QB league so I think his pick at No.8 is justified. Will
Fuller stands out here as bad value with the 9th pick. I realize
Fuller is exciting to watch and could easily put together a nice
highlight reel in year one, but for fantasy purposes he has limited
upside. I think in best ball formats or even daily fantasy games,
Fuller might be a nice target as a big-play receiver with a high
ypc but he won’t receive enough volume to be consistent. Fuller
fits the Texans well as a burner who can take defensive pressure
off DeAndre
Hopkins and also the run game, but he does not project to be
a high target player, and thus, is way too volatile for me early
in a rookie draft. He’s a classic “better in real life than fantasy”
player.
Best Pick of the Round: Personal preferences
start coming into play into Round 2, as the talent gap between players
is slim. I like the Prosise pick at No.13, as he falls within my
top 8 players overall this year, but the guy who stands out to me
most is TE Hunter
Henry at No.24. In a dynasty league you have to be patient,
and I think at this point in the draft Henry provides excellent
value as a player who you may get very little out of in 2016, but
an amazing return on investment in the long term. Henry is in the
Jason
Witten mold of tight ends and always seems to be in the right
place at the right time. He’s an able blocker with incredible hands
and very few weaknesses. While his athleticism doesn't resemble
a Jordan Reed, he seems much more durable and fundamentally sound,
which will give him plenty of opportunities to stay on the field
and make many plays for years to come. While 2016 is most likely
a redshirt season for Henry, learning from one of the all-time greats
(Antonio
Gates) is a hell of a way to begin a career. With Gates (36)
pushing the extreme upper end for any positions career timeline,
Henry could even get some meaningful playing time this season, but
should certainly be in contention for top 12 TE status out of the
gate in 2017. While this pick will take a bit of patience, I believe
the payoff will be greater than many of the players picked before
Henry in Round 2.
Worst Pick of the Round: The picks
of Wendell
Smallwood at No.20 and Tajae
Sharpe at No.23, seemed too early. There was a report that Smallwood
could see a significant number of snaps this year but I’m not buying
the hype and still think the Eagles will bring in another veteran,
not to mention Ryan
Mathews is a very capable starter when healthy. As for Sharpe,
he was running as a starter in minicamp which was likely nothing
more than a motivational ploy for Dorial
Green-Beckham; plus after the signing of DeMarco
Murray and the drafting of Derrick
Henry, the Titans seemed geared up to run the ball with more
authority for the foreseeable future. I think the owner who took
Sharpe here fell into some early preseason hype.
With all this being said, my absolute worst pick of the round is
Kenyan Drake at No.17. Drake projects as a kick returner and “gadget”
type player who could peak with 5-10 offensive touches per game.
I get that people are wary of Jay Ajayi as the starter in Miami,
but I do not believe the Dolphins drafted Drake to threaten, replace,
or step in for their current starting running back. While Drake
has elite speed and game-breaking ability, he does not possess a
starting backs build, has been somewhat injury prone, and must be
put in space to have any effect against a defense. Much like Fuller,
I see Drake as a possible real life difference maker for the NFL
but offering very inconsistent, and offering disappointing fantasy
production.
Best Pick of the Round: I liked a
few picks here in the last round, including Josh
Ferguson at No.31 and Rashard
Higgins at No.28, but my favorite pick was DeAndre
Washington at No.26. While short for NFL standards (5’8”), Washington
is thickly built and runs much harder than his size would suggest.
After watching tape of Washington in college I saw a player who
could accelerate so quickly that defenders would rarely make a clean
tackle on him. While Washington will never be a 20-plus touch workhorse,
I could see him being as productive as Giovani
Bernard was in his rookie season (1,200 total yards). The offensive
line should be a top 5 unit in Oakland, the passing game is solid
with an emerging quarterback and a couple talented wide receivers,
and the defense is on the rise. Standing in Washington’s way is
current starter Latavius
Murray who had 1,300 total yards in 2015 but seemed to struggle
the final eight games of the year. I definitely see Washington getting
5-8 touches right away in this offense and if Murray doesn't improve
on his second half, Washington could push for 12-plus touches a
game. Washington is a steal in the 3rd round as a player who looks
to be in the top 2-3 best situations for a rookie running back.
Worst Pick of the Round: I know it was the second to last pick but
Moritz Boehringer at No.35 made me laugh out loud. If you’ve
seen his YouTube highlight reel, Boehringer may excite you and it’s
hard not to enjoy his story, but as I mentioned in my introduction,
every pick counts in dynasty rookie drafts, and I think this was
a wasted opportunity. It’s not that I don't believe Boehringer
has the raw measurable and work ethic to make it in the NFL, because
I do. The problem is two-fold: first and foremost, he is perhaps
the most raw prospect of any single player in this year’s
draft, as his competition (in Germany) could be compared mostly
to average Division III schools here in the U.S. This means Boehringer
basically out-ran and out-sized his competition, something that
will not happen in the NFL. Secondly, even under the best possible
scenario it is unlikely Boehringer is any higher than fourth on
the WR depth chart that features a run-heavy offense and just used
a first round pick on a receiver. If Boehringer makes any kind of
relevant fantasy noise it will be several years down the road. There
were literally a dozen players higher on my rookie list that went
undrafted (including Alex Collins and Tyler Higbee to name a couple)
who have a much better chance to make a significant impact sooner
than Boehringer.
Post-Draft Overview
Looking back at the draft as a whole, I think one thing is clear
about this 2016 class; nothing is clear other than Zeke Elliott
and perhaps a very small group of receivers. Viewing other rookie
drafts and mocks on the internet, the picks after the first 4-5
players are hard to predict. Players we drafted in the 1st round
fell to the 3rd in other drafts, and vice-versa. I also saw players
go undrafted that were inside my personal top 20 list, so it really
shows the range of opinions on this year’s group. Bottom line: do
your homework on the players, know your league makeup, and trust
your research when it’s your turn to pick.
