Running Backs

Always start your studs: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ray Rice.

Bye Weeks: Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, and the NY Jets, so that means Jahvid Best, Arian Foster, Joseph Addai, and LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene are all benched.

Start 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Marshawn Lynch vs. ARZ
Lynch’s debut against the Bears last week was mostly ugly (17 rushes for 44 yards—a 2.6 yards per carry average), but he did get a TD, so it wasn’t a total loss. He had more rushes than Forsett, which is telling, and the talk around Seattle is about getting Lynch more involved in the offense. This week is a great week to do it as the Seahawks host the Arizona Cardinals and their 29th-ranked run defense. Arizona is one of just two teams to allow over 140 yards and a TD on the ground per game and 28 points per game. Obviously the odds are really good that Lynch can run for a lot of yards and score a TD, so make sure you have him in there this week.

Knowshon Moreno vs. OAK
Moreno came back against the Jets last Sunday after missing a couple of weeks due to injury. He ran 12 times for 48 yards and lost a fumble. The Jets defense is not a good indicator of his post-injury fantasy value since they are fourth in the league in rushing defense. This week against the 30th-ranked Oakland run defense should be a different story. The Raiders give up 150 yards (one of only three teams that allow that much), 1 TD, and nearly two big plays per game (by far the most in the league) to go along with their second worst 5.0 yards per carry average and 25 points per game. Moreno’s stats are not great; but against the Raiders, at home, coming off a tough loss to the Jets, I look for Denver and Moreno to put up big points.

Chris Ivory vs. CLE
Little-known…well, now well-known rookie RB Chris Ivory went off last week against the Tampa Bay Bucs and their 30th-ranked (at the time, at least—they are now 31st courtesy of Ivory) run defense. He’s probably the biggest free-agent pickup in fantasy leagues across America, and this week he has another favorable matchup: the Cleveland Browns and their 23rd-ranked run defense. Cleveland gives up 120 yards a game and has allowed the second most big plays in the league. Something to be aware of, however, is that Cleveland has allowed just 1 rushing TD all year, which is best in the league (tied with Tennessee and New England). Still, Ivory’s 6.3 yards per carry average, tied for best with Jamaal Charles among starting running backs, should give him plenty of opportunities to rack up more yards this week. Watch the status of Pierre Thomas though.

Darren McFadden / Michael Bush @ DEN
McFadden has been the Oakland Raiders offense this year, and even after missing the last two weeks with a hamstring injury, he still leads the team in rushing with 392 yards. He is also third in receptions and receiving yards and second in TDs for the Raiders. Now, this is as much a statement about how inept the Raiders are as it is about how good McFadden has been this season, but if McFadden is healthy and playing (he practiced fully Wednesday, limited Thursday) you want him in there every week due to his dual-threat potential. The Broncos 25th-ranked run defense is giving up 128 yards and over 1 TD per game on average—as well as the eighth highest yards per carry at 4.4. With Oakland’s lack of a passing game, the potential for big points is high for McFadden or Bush, whoever gets the start.

Bench 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Ryan Torain @ CHI
After a weak showing (16 rushes, 40 yards, 2.5 ypc average) against the Packers’ average run defense, Torain took advantage of the porous, 29th-ranked Colts run defense last week, rushing 20 times for 100 yards and, more importantly, 2 TDs. This week he goes on the road to face the league’s third-ranked run defense. Chicago is giving up just 84 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry while averaging one forced fumble per game. However, they have given up 7 rushing TDs, which is tied for most in the league, and 7 big plays, which is the fourth most in the NFL. There is the potential for Torain to break a 20- to 30-yard gain and a good chance for him to run one in, but there’s as much a chance that he will be held in check all day as he was against Green Bay. He’s a risky play for me this week.

Ricky Williams vs. PIT
Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are still splitting carries about 55/45, so I could really go either way with my bench recommendation here. But given Ronnie’s better chances to break a long run, I’m benching Ricky against the Steelers and their league-leading run defense. Pittsburgh gives up 64 yards, a 2.7 ypc average, and 12 points per game. They’ve only allowed 2 rushing TDs all year and are the only team in the league that has not given up a single big play. In fact, nobody has run for more than a 14-yard gain against them. The speed and discipline of the Pittsburgh defense will be too much for Ricky and his 48 yards-per-game average.

Brandon Jackson vs. MIN
Green Bay’s backup running back had done nothing all year until two weeks ago against Washington when he ran for 115 yards—with most of that (71 yards) coming on one run. He’s averaging 51 yards per game, has 1 TD, and isn’t a threat receiving. Now line him up against the Vikings and their top 10 defense and see what happens. Minnesota is giving up 102 yards per game but has allowed just 2 TDs and a 3.8 ypc average—eighth best in the league. You should expect numbers similar to last week’s (12 rushes for 53 yards and 0 TDs), not the week before (10 carries for 115 yards), and nobody wants a starting RB who gives them 50 yards and no score.

Beanie Wells @ SEA
The once highly sought after RB is still backing up Tim Hightower in Arizona and can’t get his running act together. In the three games he’s played in this season, he’s averaged 43 yards at 3.3 yards per carry, and he has no TDs. In the past two weeks Wells has rushed 25 times for 54 yards and no scores and hasn’t had a run longer than 7 yards! Seattle has the league’s second-ranked run defense (yes, really, and I’m still surprised by this too). They give up 70 yards per game, 2.9 yards per carry, about half a TD on average, and they have allowed just one big play all year. Even if Wells isn’t outperformed by Hightower, he still won’t be worth playing this week.

Wide Receivers