Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Start 'Em:
Receivers Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Michael Crabtree @ KC
So far Crabtree is being outperformed in the receiving game by Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Josh Morgan and Delanie Walker, and has totaled just 3 catches for 44 yards in two games. But there’s some good news for Crabtree owners – he plays the Chiefs this week. Kansas City is allowing the eighth most passing yards per game (253) and the eighth highest yards per catch average (7.5). They also have allowed the sixth most passing plays of 20+ yards and lead the league in giving up the most passing plays of 40+ yards. This all points to a big numbers day for the disappointing WR. Sure he has to deal with Alex Smith’s 64.9 QB rating and 4 INTs, but unless he wants to get slapped with a “bust” title he needs to pick it up starting this week, which is exactly what I think he will do.

Greg Camarillo vs. DET
This is my “hunch” of the week. With Sidney Rice out and both Bernard Berrian (knee) and Percy Harvin hurting (his hip injury, not his migraines, have kept him limited in practice this week), and with a couple of weeks of chemistry built up, I look for Camarillo to be the big recipient of a bounce-back game by Favre against the Lions and their 30th ranked pass defense . The Lions pass defense is giving up almost 10 yards per play (second worst in the league), allowing QBs a 64% completion percentage and a 108 QB rating (fourth worst in the league), 305 yards a game (third worst in the league), the most 40+ yard pass plays, the third most 20+ yard pass plays, and allow a first down on 41% of the passes attempted against them (third worst in the league). Clearly all of this adds up to big numbers for the Vikings passing game and I choose Camarillo to be the big beneficiary.

Wes Welker vs. BUF
What ACL injury? I thought it was supposed to take at least one year to fully recover; but I guess not if your name is Wes Welker. For the most part Buffalo’s pass defense has been about average and that includes a good game against the Dolphins and a below average game against the Packers. So where does Buffalo’s pass defense really stand? We’ll get a better idea after this weekend’s game against New England. Welker is eighth in the league in receptions and will likely jump a few spots after this game. His yardage isn’t impressive (yet) but he’s scoring TDs – two in Week one and another score last week against the mighty Jets defense (even though it was in a losing effort). Things will only continue to get better for Welker so keep this tough little SOB in there against Buffalo.

Dez Bryant @ HOU
So far only Miles Austin and FB Chris Gronkowski have receiving TDs for the Cowboys, but rookie Dez Bryant has showed some flashes of stardom as a WR. Last week he returned a punt 62 yards for a score, reminding us that he’s multi-dimensional. He’s second on the team in receptions and receiving yards and should get even more playing time starting as the Jerry Jones, the media, teammates and the fans all scream for something to change for the 0-2 Cowboys. The timing couldn’t be better for Bryant; this week’s opponent is the worst pass defense in the league. The only team giving up over 400 yards per game (411), the second most attempts and completions per game (95 and 68 respectively), and allow the second highest QB completion percentage in the league (72%). They’ve also given up the third most TDs, the second most 20+ yard pass plays and the most 40+ yard pass plays. Basically Houston’s pass defense is atrocious and you need to start any WR on your roster that goes against them. Miles Austin is a no-brainer and someone you should be starting every week so it’s silly to include him here; which means the next logical option is Dez Bryant. Don’t be concerned about Bryant’s rib injury that has hindered him in practice – this will be a shootout and he should pay big dividends.

Bench 'Em:
Receivers Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Hines Ward @ TB
Limited this week in practice with a thigh injury, Ward is still expected to play, but is he worth starting? Tampa Bay gives up under 200 yards per game passing, is tied for the league lead in INTs, and has the second best opposing QB rating allowed at just 55.6. Throw Charlie Batch into the mix (let’s not even think about something happening to Batch, ‘cause then we’re looking at Byron Leftwich throwing the ball) and you see how bad things are for the Steelers’ passing game. Ward’s had a decent start to the season but this game just looks like a trap for the Steelers and their offense so stay away.

Mohamed Massaquoi @ BAL
Here’s another instance where I should be able to say never start a Cleveland Browns player against a Baltimore Ravens defense. But here are the specifics on why not: the Ravens are at home, coming off a big loss to Cincy. They have the league’s second best pass defense, giving up just 110 yards per game, they’re one of only two defense not to give up a passing TD, they are the only defense to hold opposing QBs under 50% in pass completions (46%), and they haven’t given up a pass play over 30 yards. C’mon, we’re talking about the friggin’ Ravens defense here people!

Mike Williams (TB) vs. PIT
Seven catches for 84 yards in two weeks is certainly not impressive, but 2 TDs in two weeks is another story. Mike Williams is clearly the favorite non-TE receiving target for Josh Freeman, but that all comes to a halt this week in a date with the Steelers. The Steelers pass defense is pretty average right now, giving up 215 yards per game but they’re tied for the lead league in INTs, have the sixth best opposing QB rating at just 63.6, give up just 10 points per game, allow the eighth lowest yards per completion average (5.9), and only 4 passing plays have gone over 20 yards with none of those going over 30 yards. Clearly this matchup has the recipe for a long day for Mike Williams so do yourself a favor and bench him this week.

Braylon Edwards @ MIA
Edwards and his new DWI will be on the sidelines when this game kicks off Sunday evening so we already know his impact is likely to be lessened in the game by losing his starter status. The Dolphins sixth best passing defense in the league is waiting. Miami gives up just 162 yards per game in the air and has allowed just 1 passing TD while hauling in 3 INTs. They keep everything in front of them, allowing the third lowest yards per catch average (just 5.2) and have the fourth stingiest opposing QB rating allowed (58.3). So between the inconsistent play of Sanchez and the DWI playing time punishment, make believe Edwards has already been locked up for violating his probation conditions in Ohio with this latest transgression and avoid the headache.