Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Always start your studs: Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, and Brandon Lloyd.

Bye Weeks: Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Oakland Raiders, and San Diego Chargers, so that means Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Louis Murphy, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Patrick Crayton are all benched.

Start 'Em:
Receivers Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

DeSean Jackson @ WAS
Jackson isn’t getting a lot of catches (last week’s 7-catch performance notwithstanding) but he’s still getting 72 yards a game (12th-best in the league) and has 4 TDs to go with the second-most pass plays over 40 yards—and remember, this is with missing a week due to injury. We all know how explosive he is, and he’s facing the 31st-ranked pass defense in the Redskins. Washington gives up 281 yards and nearly 2 TDs a game, and Jackson, like the rest of the Eagles, will be eager to give some payback to Washington for their early-season loss. I expect DeSean to have a big game.

Mike Sims-Walker vs. HOU
The slumping Texans pass defense is still ranked last in the NFL, giving up 298 yards and 2 and a half TDs per game. They allow the fifth-most big plays and the most plays over 40 yards, as well as the third-highest QB rating and the second-highest pass completion percentage. Clearly the Texans are a team you can throw against—and their opponents do just that. Sims-Walker (4 catches for 49 yards per game) and fellow wideout Mike Thomas (4 catches for 48 yards per game) are nearly identical in stats, but Sims-Walker gets the TDs (4 on the year to just 1 for Thomas) so I’m going with him for the bigger game against the lowly Houston pass defense.

Calvin Johnson @ BUF
The Buffalo defense gives up 193 passing yards (very good), 2 TDs (not good), and 29 points per game (worst in the league). Their 17 TDs allowed is third-worst in the league and their QB rating of 108.4 is second-worst. They don’t get pressure on the quarterback and they don’t create turnovers (a league-low 1 INT), so that leaves the whole field open for a stud like Calvin Johnson. Johnson’s average per-game production this year is 5 catches for 69 yards and a TD, and even with Drew Stanton throwing him the ball, he should be able to exceed those year-to-date averages against the Bills. Plus, he was completely shut down last week against the Jets and may bounce back big-time this week.

Mike Wallace vs. NE
The Steelers’ speedster, who leads the league with a 23 yards per reception average, is mainly a big-play threat. He averages 63 yards at just under 3 catches per game, but he does have 5 TDs—and against the 29th-ranked New England pass defense, he could be adding to that total this week. New England is letting opposing quarterbacks have their way with them, so naturally those teams’ receivers will benefit as well. Cleveland’s leading WR last week had just 58 yards against the Patriots, which is right near Wallace’s average. But it’s the big play with a TD potential of Wallace (New England gives up the fifth-most pass plays of 20-plus yards) that makes him a good start this week.

Bench 'Em:
Receivers Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Michael Crabtree vs. STL
The Rams are smack in the middle of the pass defense rankings at 16th. They give up 216 yards and 1 TD per game, but they also pressure the quarterback (ninth in the league in both sacks, with 23, and QB rating, with 76.3), they keep the coverage in front of them (sixth-fewest big plays allowed), and they make it tough to score (sixth-fewest TDs allowed, with 9, and sixth-fewest points allowed per game, with 17.6). Crabtree’s 4 catches for 48 yards per game just isn’t cutting it, and with the prospect of being double-teamed by a corner plus Oshiomogho Atogwe, I just don’t like his chances, even with the spark quarterback Troy Smith has given the offense.

Roy Williams @ NYG
Roy Williams started off the year surprisingly hot, keeping rookie Dez Bryant on the sideline longer than most of us thought he would, but that’s all changed the last few weeks. Williams still leads the team in TDs with 5, but he hasn’t scored since Week 6, and in his last 4 games he has just 5 catches for 55 yards. He was also shut out the last time the Cowboys faced the Giants (in Week 7). Bryant has clearly taken over the #2 WR role and Williams is more of an afterthought now. I don’t think he’ll be shut out again by the Giants, but I do think their second-ranked pass defense will stay on track to the tune of their average 169 yards and 1 TD allowed per game. You can check the recommendation to bench Jon Kitna above for more of the Giants’ impressive stats, but just know that this is likely to be another long day for the Cowboys, Roy Williams included.

Chansi Stuckey vs. NYJ
Stuckey is third on the Browns in both catches and yards, and even with the little spark that rookie quarterback Colt McCoy has provided the team, their passing game is just terrible. Even in last week’s blowout of the Patriots, Stuckey had only 2 catches for 6 yards. He did have an 11-yard TD run but, c’mon, that’s an anomaly that you can’t count on again. The Browns’ 25th-ranked passing game is so anemic that Darrelle Revis could cover Stuckey, Cribbs, and Massaquoi by himself and Cleveland still might not match their average passing yards of 189 per game.

Percy Harvin @ CHI
So much for Harvin being limited in practices and questionable for the Cardinals game last week. He only had season highs in catches (9) and yards (126) as the Vikings lit up Arizona through the air for a big win. But this week against the Chicago Bears and their turnover-generating defense, I expect Favre to throw some picks and Harvin to be blanketed tightly. The Bears have not given up many big plays, have allowed only 5 TDs all year, and have held quarterbacks to a 68.9 QB rating (second-best in the league) and just 6 yards per completion—tops in the NFL. Harvin has been on fire the last two weeks, but there’s a very good chance he will be held to his season averages of 5 catches and 65 yards this week.