The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 141
Second Reads and Route Adjustments
10/30/08

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

The stats that reveal this information include target conversion percentage (C%), targets per game (T/GM), and touchdown conversion percentage (Td C%). These three pieces of information will be combined with the typical receiving stats of value to reveal which moves you should make at this fantasy position down the stretch.

It’s clear that the players with the most targets per game don’t necessarily have the best fantasy points per game average. Of the top twelve T/GM receivers, five of them average less than 10 points per game. Three of these five receivers – Dwayne Bowe, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Matt Jones – are arguably the primary threat in offenses with line struggles to run the ball and protect the passer. The Chiefs and Bengals both have quarterback issues.

If you argue T.J. Houshmandzadeh isn’t the primary guy in Cincinnati, then he also has something in common with the other two receivers in the T/GM top twelve who are averaging less than 10 points per game. Houshmandzadeh, Eddie Royal, and Wes Welker all serve as productive secondary options for their teams and all three are underneath options for their quarterbacks – averaging 10 yards or fewer per catch.

Of the twelve most targeted receivers, only three – Bowe, Wayne, and Jones – have a conversion percentage below 60%. This is a common sense stat: if you have reliable hands, your quarterback will target you often.

Surprisingly, the lowest three converters on this list of 36 receivers are the venerable, Terrell Owens (47%), Marvin Harrison (46%), and Braylon Edwards (40%). T.O. has the rep for inconsistent hands, but Harrison and Edwards? Credit inconsistent play for each offense to begin the season. Stick with Owens, who might be a buy-low candidate relative to his preseason perception.

If the patchwork solution between Kellen Winslow and the Browns holds up, Braylon Edwards could benefit. The attempts are there, but the receptions aren’t. Marvin Harrison may have a strong game or two for the rest of the year, but I wouldn’t count on him returning to fantasy form unless the Colts find a situational role for him where he can exploit his remaining skills in a new way. I would think putting Harrison in the slot could be helpful, but I’m not sure they have the personnel to replace Harrison’s role on the outside to divert the focus of a starting corner.

In contrast, let’s check out the top 36 receivers that make the most of their opportunities. What you’re going to find here are a lot of solid #3 -#4 receivers or bye week options. Only Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson are double-digit fantasy point producers and in the top twelve in terms of converting targets, which should further underscore how good both are playing right now.

You may not get much out of Ike Hilliard, Antwaan Randle El, Chansi Stuckey, or Hank Baskett, but if your desperate for a receiver these guys will at least give you something most weeks.

Wes Welker is no longer “sneaky good,” but Lance Moore, Steve Breaston, and Eddie Royal have the quarterback and surrounding options to give you solid production without the marquee name. Plus, Royal and Welker get enough targets each game to be productive options. Houshmandzadeh and Breaston’s stats indicate the same, but quarterback issues and the return to slot receiver status (respectively) lead me to believe they’ve already peaked.

It’s obvious from this table that production and the highest target conversion don’t always go hand in hand. Santana Moss, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, and Larry Fitzgerald are all in the middle to closer to the bottom of the pack I this category. When you get your nose out of the stat column and watch a ballgame you know these players are often targeted in situations with a high degree of difficulty. Therefore, the conversion may not be among the highest on the list, but they continue to get fed the ball enough to produce among the best in the game.

There is a player with intriguing numbers that we should discuss. Robert Meachem is averaging fewer than two targets per game, but he’s converting enough to earn over five points per game. When you see he’s averaging over 30 yards per catch, you realize he’s a player to watch for the future but not likely this season. A lot of owners are up and own on Meachem because his production is high for a player with such limited looks. Personally, I like what Meachem has done by working with David Patteon to learn what’s needd to become a true professional. He’s a long-term “buy” candidate in dynasty leagues as long as he continues to exhibit this type of behavior.